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ID:
083788
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| Publication |
2008.
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| Summary/Abstract |
As an "index case" of Third-Wave democracies facing existential threat, Taiwan's elections entail important implications for study in comparative politics and international relations. In 2008, three important elections help define the course of Taiwan's democratic development and its relationship with China: the January legislative election, the March presidential election, and a controversial referendum on Taiwan's United Nations entry. This article employs game theory to analyze the impact of Taiwan's 2008 elections on cross-strait relations. It develops an "election game" by examining each principal player's preferences regarding each election. It analyzes Beijing's possible reaction to the potential outcomes, and then examines the actual election outcomes against the model and offers observations on the prospect of cross-strait relations. Overall, the model predicts that cross-strait relations after the 2008 elections will present a historic opportunity, which can be seized or squandered, depending on political leadership
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| 2 |
ID:
148093
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article contends that the Tsai administration will likely be positive for U.S.-Taiwan relations. While the partnership may well require more work than was expended over the last eight years, the yield may be significant.
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| 3 |
ID:
143258
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| Summary/Abstract |
A historic rapprochement is transforming the Taiwan Strait, which until recently had been considered a “flashpoint” in Asia that could embroil two nuclear powers. This détente occurs amidst a momentous power transition in the Asia-Pacific. Many see the U.S. “Pacific Pivot” as a response to China's recent assertive policies, the shifting power balance caused by the 2008 global financial crisis, and the realization that Asia holds the key to the economic and security futures of the United States. And yet the Obama Administration's official statements on the pivot policy were nearly silent on Taiwan. What explains the near official silence on the role of Taiwan in the U.S. pivot policy? This article examines three hypotheses: (1) “The Lost Cause” thesis (i.e., Pivot without Taiwan), (2) “The Fate Undetermined” thesis (i.e., Pivot, then Taiwan), and (3) “The Tacit Alliance” thesis (i.e., Pivot with Taiwan, in deed if not in word) against available evidence and assesses the positive and negative implications of the evolving cross-strait relations for the U.S. pivot to Asia, as well as the U.S. policy's impact on cross-strait relations
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