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GRILL, BETH (2) answer(s).
 
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1
ID:   084088


Identifying urban flashpoints: delphi-derived model for scoring cities' vulnerability to large-scale unrest / Paul, Christopher; Grill, Beth; Glenn, Russell W; Mckernan, Megan P   Journal Article
Paul, Christopher Journal Article
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Publication 2008.
Summary/Abstract Although great strides have been made toward forecasting state-level instability, little progress has been made toward the prediction of outbreaks of urban unrest. This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Forty-five factors correlated with urban unrest are identified and weighted by an expert panel. Based on expert elicitation through an iterative Delphi exercise, the explicitly methodological discussion describes both the process and the resulting assessment framework. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest
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2
ID:   148047


Moving beyond population-centric vs. enemy-centric counterinsurgency / Dunigan, Molly; Paul, Christopher ; Grill, Beth   Journal Article
Paul, Christopher Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future. Recent experiences with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan offer many lessons for future counterinsurgents, but the discourse on the subject continues to be mired in a traditional dichotomy pitting population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency against enemy-centric approaches. Historical analysis suggests that this traditional dichotomy is not a sufficiently nuanced way to understand or plan for such operations. Instead, discussions of counterinsurgency should focus on two dimensions: actions (use of physical force vs. political or moral actions) and targets (active insurgents vs. insurgent support). This perspective divides the space of possible counterinsurgency efforts into four quadrants, suggesting that effective counterinsurgency campaigns find a balance of effort across the four quadrants that is well matched to the specific context.
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