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| 1 |
ID:
128583
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| 2 |
ID:
130279
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The November 2012 election results revealed and underscored greater changes in American political dynamics than many of us had anticipated. Republicans, who had won the popular vote in four out of the five presidential elections from 1968-1988, have now lost five out of the last six, with 2000 notably featuring a Democratic popular vote win but George W. Bush capturing the Electoral College. Republicans last won 300 or more electoral votes in 1988; Democrats have now exceeded 300 in four of the last six elections, from 1992-2012. Keeping in mind that 270 electoral votes are needed to win, Democrats have now carried 18 states plus the District of Columbia in six consecutive elections, a combination totaling 242 electoral votes-89 percent of the 270 needed to win an election. One can now say that Democrats have a home field advantage in presidential races.
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| 3 |
ID:
084508
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| 4 |
ID:
123084
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
GARY C. JACOBSON analyzes the 2012 presidential and congressional elections. He finds that Barack Obama won despite the weak economy because Democrat partisans outnumbered Republican in the highly polarized electorate and remained unusually loyal to their candidate. The relationship between presidential and House and Senate voting patterns was extraordinarily strong, making it the most partisan, nationalized, and president-centered election in at least 60 years.
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| 5 |
ID:
142086
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| Summary/Abstract |
Peace through strength, regime change to democracy, and preemptive strikes are known to be neoconservative policies which are based on such values as hegemonic stability, democratic peace and war as a necessary evil. If a Republican candidate wins office in January 2017, the new U.S. administration will undertake a bottomup-review of the North Korea policy. The key variable will be whether North Korea returns to the dialogue or conducts another long-range missile test and/or nuclear test before the new U.S. administration comes in. If the long-range missile test makes a big advance by confirming North Korea’s capability of reaching the U.S. mainland and if the nuclear test turns out to be a success of miniaturizing nuclear warheads that can be placed on the top of ICBMs, the new U.S. administration will take it as a game changer. This kind of strategic game changer could revive neoconservatism that has been ostensibly dead in the U.S. security community and it could be applied to North Korea.
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| 6 |
ID:
131674
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| 7 |
ID:
128004
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
THE COMMON wisdom holds that the GOP 2016 presidential race will boil down to a joust between the "establishment" and the "insurgents." The former will allegedly be more moderate and the latter more conservative. Since most polls for two decades have shown that around two-thirds to 70 percent of self-described Republicans call themselves conservative, this elite narrative will focus on just how much the establishment candidate will need to be pulled to the right in order to fend off his insurgent challenger.
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| 8 |
ID:
121629
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
After the 2012 Republican New Hampshire primary, 159 poll results were released prior to the subsequent nomination contests in the Republican presidential primary. More than two-thirds of these polls relied on interactive voice response (IVR) software to conduct the interviews. We evaluate the ability of polls to predict the vote-share for the Republican candidates Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich. We find no overall difference in the average accuracy of IVR and traditional human polls, but IVR polls conducted prior to human polls are significantly poorer predictors of election outcomes than traditional human polls even after controlling for characteristics of the states, polls, and electoral environment. These findings provide suggestive, but not conclusive, evidence that pollsters may take cues from one another given the stakes involved. If so, reported polls should not be assumed to be independent of one another and so-called poll-of-polls will be misleadingly precise.
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| 9 |
ID:
117574
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
To answer the question posed by the title of this article, we sketch what we mean by the concepts of civility and argument and engagement; note the ways in which the rise of partisan media menaces civil engaged argument; and close with analysis of an exchange between a prominent Democrat and Republican that illustrates the importance of common definitions and sources of trusted evidence.
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