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| 1 |
ID:
182737
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| Summary/Abstract |
Does extreme heat have causal effects on exports? If so, how do the effects evolve? This paper exploits monthly fluctuations in the number of extremely hot days within a city to identify their effects on firm-level exports in that city. We find robust evidence that hot temperatures have persistent adverse effects on firm-level exports. Specifically, export losses gradually arise following a heat shock, beginning from an undetectable impact and eventually accumulating to a large and significant impact. An additional >30 °C day in a month could generate cumulative losses up to 0.83% of a firm's annual exports twenty-four months later. The negative effects of extreme heat are mainly through its adverse impacts on the firm's investment, capital, and production output. Capital-intensive sectors and FDI-related enterprises are among the most affected by high temperatures. Our findings support the “no-recovery” hypothesis after weather extremes and have implications for future climate change policies.
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| 2 |
ID:
182738
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| Summary/Abstract |
Does extreme heat have causal effects on exports? If so, how do the effects evolve? This paper exploits monthly fluctuations in the number of extremely hot days within a city to identify their effects on firm-level exports in that city. We find robust evidence that hot temperatures have persistent adverse effects on firm-level exports. Specifically, export losses gradually arise following a heat shock, beginning from an undetectable impact and eventually accumulating to a large and significant impact. An additional >30 °C day in a month could generate cumulative losses up to 0.83% of a firm's annual exports twenty-four months later. The negative effects of extreme heat are mainly through its adverse impacts on the firm's investment, capital, and production output. Capital-intensive sectors and FDI-related enterprises are among the most affected by high temperatures. Our findings support the “no-recovery” hypothesis after weather extremes and have implications for future climate change policies.
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| 3 |
ID:
084740
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| Publication |
2008.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Regression analysis is used to tease out the relative significance of influences on the supply and demand for the exports of China and India. On the supply side, the value-added tax in China has discouraged export supply. The elimination of the rebate on those taxes will discourage exports. Higher wages discourage exports, but the share of exports by foreign invested enterprise is a positive influence, as is a higher share of value added in output and greater experience in exporting. On the demand side, exports depend in part on aggregate income levels in importing countries. Relative wages have been more important than exchange rates in determining the demands for Chinese and Indian exports. This evidence does not support the pressures for a devaluation of the RMB. There is also evidence of the positive significance of the accustomization of purchasers to buying Chinese exports.
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| 4 |
ID:
090106
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China's exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second, in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China's exports. Third, in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China's exports further. Fourth, China's foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.
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