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| 1 |
ID:
111690
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Arab uprisings of 2011 are still unfolding, but we can already discern patterns of their effects on the Middle East region. This article offers a brief chronology of events, highlighting their inter-connections but also their very diverse origins, trajectories and outcomes. It discusses the economic and political grievances at the root of the uprisings and assesses the degree to which widespread popular mobilization can be attributed to pre-existing political, labour and civil society activism, and social media. It argues that the uprisings' success in overthrowing incumbent regimes depended on the latter's responses and relationships with the army and security services. The rebellions' inclusiveness or lack thereof was also a crucial factor. The article discusses the prospects of democracy in the Arab world following the 2011 events and finds that they are very mixed: while Tunisia, at one end, is on track to achieve positive political reform, Syria, Yemen and Libya are experiencing profound internal division and conflict. In Bahrain the uprising was repressed. In Egypt, which epitomizes many regional trends, change will be limited but, for that reason, possibly more long-lasting. Islamist movements did not lead the uprisings but will benefit from them politically even though, in the long run, political participation may lead to their decline. Finally, the article sketches the varied and ongoing geopolitical implications of the uprisings for Turkish, Iranian and Israeli interests and policies. It assesses Barack Obama's response to the 2011 events and suggests that, despite their profound significance for the politics of the region, they may not alter the main contours of US foreign policy in the Middle East in a major way.
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| 2 |
ID:
145124
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| Summary/Abstract |
Both the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have been global leaders in embracing and operationalizing responsibility to protect (R2P). The adoption of the AU’s Constitutive Act, Article 4 (h) in 2000, has transformed its old-fashioned principle of noninterference to one of nonindifference. This authorizes the AU to intervene in Member States with respect to war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity. ECOWAS has through its conflict prevention, management, and resolution protocol and its conflict prevention framework deepened and practicalized the notion of sovereignty as responsibility. These frameworks from both the AU and the ECOWAS have close similarities to the R2P norms. However, although these notions are captured in official documents, their actual operationalization faces challenges relating to sovereignty, limited institutional capacity, a restricted appetite for enforcement action, and a lack of explicit instruments to activate their intervention clauses in R2P-like situations. In spite of these challenges, the article argues that the initiatives of both the AU and the ECOWAS in Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, and Libya demonstrated a positively active African agency in contributing to global peace processes. This article, therefore, assesses the successes and limitations of African regional agency in enforcing R2P-like norms among its member states and its implications for and contributions to global international relations discourses.
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| 3 |
ID:
119450
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Libya's relationship with sub-Saharan Africa has been complex, troubled and misunderstood, both during the rule of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and the conflict that culminated in his overthrow and death. The Libyan conflict of 2011 divided Africa, but nonetheless the African Union (AU) was able to agree on a political strategy aimed at achieving a negotiated settlement and power transition.
The AU's peace initiative was launched in March 2011 and, contrary to widespread perception that the AU sought to prop up Gaddafi, it offered a credible and balanced option of a negotiated solution. United Nations Security Council resolution 1973 expressed support for the initiative, but in the event France, Britain and the United States blocked its chances of success.
This article draws on evidence and analysis provided by the AU officials involved. It details the process whereby the AU adopted and implemented its decisions, and describes the AU's diplomatic engagement with Gaddafi and the National Transitional Council. The article also draws on information provided by Sudanese military and intelligence officials, providing an account, hitherto untold, of how the Sudanese government supported the Libyan opposition with military supplies, training and intelligence, in tacit cooperation with NATO countries.
The article concludes with reflections on how the Libyan conflict has had an impact on the doctrine of the 'responsibility to protect', on the AU, and on Libya's relations with Africa.
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| 4 |
ID:
111936
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
ARLY IN SEPTEMBER 2011, the forces of the National Transitional Council (NTC) of Libya backed, on a mass scale, by NATO assumed control over the larger part of the country and captured Tripoli. The regime change became a fact yet the country will have to tread a long and arduous road of rehabilitation of its now practically non-existent infrastructure and address a more important and even more challenging task of national reconciliation and revival of national unity. It seems that external military interference (far beyond the limits outlined by UN Resolution 1973) has made this dual task even harder to achieve. It caused unnecessary loss of civilian lives, stirred up hard feelings which pushed the east and west of the country apart, destroyed civilian objects and started uncontrolled proliferation of all sorts of weaponry.
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| 5 |
ID:
107877
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| 6 |
ID:
116112
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The September 11 killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, and three other Americans during an attack by an angry mob on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi has concentrated the world's attention on the problems of post-Qaddafi Libya. The riots showcased both the power of radical Islamist militias and the inability of the government in Tripoli to provide security and maintain order across the country. Lawlessness and corruption are pervasive, and fundamental questions about the structure and operation of Libyan political and economic institutions remain unanswered. None of this, however, should obscure the fact that the larger story about the new Libya is surprisingly positive. The worst-case scenarios commonly predicted a year ago have not emerged, and there are actually grounds for guarded optimism about the future.
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| 7 |
ID:
137841
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This article examines Libya's troubled transition from Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi's authoritarian regime. The author asks what past transitions tell us about possible positive pathways from authoritarian rule and what Libya can learn from its previous failures in development in order to shed light on why Libya is struggling in its transition from regime change to economic and political development. The article concludes by identifying Libya's uniqueness with its “shallow state,” its deep regional and tribal rivalries, and distributive economy, which together are currently incapacitating progress towards sustainable development.
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| 8 |
ID:
157988
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| Summary/Abstract |
It would be hard to overstate the importance of air power in humanitarian intervention (HI) and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Yet, the role of air power in HI and R2P has been understudied. This article seeks to remedy the lack of systematic investigation. It does so by developing a framework for assessing the effectiveness of air power during military operations in HI and R2P and applies it to NATO’s air campaigns in Kosovo (Operation Allied Force) and Libya (Operation Unified Protector). Upon examination NATO is revealed to have fared better in Libya than Kosovo in positively accomplishing its stated humanitarian objectives, minimizing collateral damage and reducing the costs for the interveners, all of which are aspects considered by the model. The relative effectiveness of Operations Unified Protector is generally attributed to geography, diplomacy and technology. It is argued that better ground support, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and burden sharing are needed to enhance the utility of air power in HI and R2P even further.
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| 9 |
ID:
119641
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Looking at the past century, it is possible to identify two eras of distinct international relationships between states: (1) the bipolar system (during the cold war); and (2) the unipolar or multipolar system (at present). This change of the international order has also produced a change in the way the use of force is seen in solving economic, ideological, or ethnic problems. The vacuume created with the dissolution of one of the two superpowers (USSR)-a vacuum not covered by the remaining superpower-has de facto opened the way to the proliferation of small wars. But even if small wars do not represent an immediate threat for most Western countries, prolonged small wars can jeopardise the international order. Apart from wars in the conventional and traditional way, unconventional warfare like civil war, ethnicwar, religious war, guerrilla warfare, terrorism, etc within a state also has the equal potential to endanger the international security. The Libyan crisis which saw the end of a dictatorial regime had such potential.
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| 10 |
ID:
123792
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| Publication |
2013.
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The range of potentially looming or very real threats is broad, as are the assets already used today, be it, Iran's underground nuclear enrichment sites or Islamist irregulars in Toyotas. This survey is a stroll through recent selected developments in modern air to ground weapons (ATGW) countering these threats.
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| 11 |
ID:
104713
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| 12 |
ID:
118200
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| 13 |
ID:
146815
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| Contents |
The effort to degrade and defeat the Islamic State is like many other multilateral military efforts – characterized by widely varying contributions to the effort. This article seeks to understand the patterns of contributions. Three sets of explanations are applied: the lessons of Afghanistan and Libya, variations in how potential contributors feel the threat posed by the Islamic State, and domestic political dynamics. While there may be some political processes that overlap with the big lessons and with the threat of the Islamic State, the patterns of contributions thus far suggest that the key drivers of reactions to the Islamic State are the desire not to repeat Afghanistan combined with some impetus provided by Islamic State attacks in the various homelands. The conclusion suggests some policy implications as well as some ideas for future research.
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| 14 |
ID:
173227
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| Summary/Abstract |
At present, some states are undertaking military interventions in different parts of the world, contending the ‘legitimacy’ of their i006Evocation of responsibility to protect civilians from a humanitarian crisis. Discussions at international forums concerning the concept of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are inconclusive about its legal nature and application. While some scholars and states support the doctrine of R2P as being legitimate, others challenge or take a rather sceptical view. Divergent views seem to be originating from its incompatibilities with the rules of international law, including the Charter of the United Nations. What is controversial is that the supporters of R2P are mainly from the West, while objections to R2P are from developing countries mainly from West Asia or Africa. This raises concerns about the possibility of future applications of R2P in any of the countries in these regions or other developing countries. The article, analyses the legal nature of R2P in terms of the main principles of international law and other sources of international law and argues that the legitimacy and international legal effect of R2P are uncertain.
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| 15 |
ID:
171209
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| Summary/Abstract |
No issue deserves more scrutiny than the mechanisms whereby popular unrest unleashes civil wars. We argue that one institution – two-tiered security systems – is particularly pernicious in terms of the accompanying civil war risk. These systems’ defining characteristic is the juxtaposition of small communally stacked units that protect regimes from internal adversaries with larger regular armed forces that deter external opponents. These systems aggravate civil war risks because stacked security units lack the size to repress widespread dissent, but inhibit rapid regime change through coup d’état. Regular militaries, meanwhile, fracture when ordered to employ force against populations from which they were recruited.
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| 16 |
ID:
076710
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| Publication |
2006.
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Good intelligence is critical to support U.S. policy efforts to counter nuclear proliferation, but the historical record is mixed. This article reviews several past cases of nonproliferation success and failure, including the Soviet Union, China, India, Libya, Iraq, and the A. Q. Khan network. Intelligence frequently provides warning, and in some cases concrete and timely information has enabled nonproliferation successes. On the other hand, failures often result from a lack of detailed and specific information adequate to overturn erroneous assumptions or preconceptions. Improvements in intelligence are needed, but correct assessments of foreign programs cannot be guaranteed. A close and healthy relationship between intelligence analysts and policymakers is also a key factor in making the most of insights that are developed.
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| 17 |
ID:
121502
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| 18 |
ID:
112960
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
By virtue of its very small local population and its extremely high level of oil and gas resources, Qatar simply does not face the socio-economic or political pressures coursing through the region. Uniquely, it has embraced the Arab uprisings as an opportunity, rather than a challenge, to cement its international (Western) reputation, albeit at the expense of some of its regional relationships.
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| 19 |
ID:
114333
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| 20 |
ID:
111253
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Arab Spring has affected interests of the Western democracies in the Middle and Near Eastern nations, and the instability will compel changes in American policies for the region. There have been political revisions and in some cases nontraditional modifications in moribund autocracies and dictatorships across the Arab world, reaching to the Arab and Persian Gulfs. The awakening has been enervated by violent responses from more cohesive and profound dictatorships in Syria and Libya, but the "leaderless" model of the awakening can quickly bring together disparate groups working toward a common goal. As the process across the Arab world unfolds, American interests will need to be addressed in ways different from the past. New American wars will not be a promising option. The region's challenges require a serious and consistent policy toward resolving the core issues of instability, and that includes overcoming domestic opinion and lobbies that work against a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The current demographic prospect is that Israel will lose its Zionist hopes by the forced integration of Palestinians who have lost their own hope of a viable and independent nation.
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