| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
FORECASTERS OF the fortunes of nations are no different from Wall Street analysts: they all rely on the past to predict the future. So it is no surprise that China's rapid economic growth in the last thirty years has led many to believe that the country will be able to continue to grow at this astounding rate for another two to three decades.
Beijing's Exceptionalism by Jonathan Anderson
IS CHINA'S rise inevitable? Well, as we've learned to our great chagrin over the past twelve months, there's nothing inevitable about continued rapid economic expansion or the near-term success of any economic model, and past performance is most emphatically not a guarantee of future returns. And, as with any lower-income developing country, there are plenty of visible and unforeseen pitfalls that could hurt China's growth prospects over the coming years and decades.
However, as author and newspaperman Damon Runyon famously remarked, "The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong-but that's the way to bet." And when taking odds on the potential of today's emerging markets to mature into wealthier and more powerful states, you had best be betting on China.
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