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| 1 |
ID:
088219
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper tries to assess the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in South Africa by undertaking a cointegration analysis using annual data from 1980 to 2005. We also investigate the causal relationships between the various disaggregate forms of energy consumption and industrial production. Our results imply that industrial production and employment are long-run forcing variables for electricity consumption. Applying the [Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T., 1995. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics 66, 225-250] technique to Granger-causality, we find bi-directional causality between oil consumption and industrial production. For the other forms of energy consumption, there is evidence in support of the energy neutrality hypothesis. There is also evidence of causality between employment and electricity consumption as well as coal consumption causing employment.
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| 2 |
ID:
095043
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Empirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model estimated with 116 variables spanning the quarterly period of 1976:01 to 2005:02. Overall, the results show that a positive shock to the growth rate of the real defense spending translates to a positive short-run effect on the growth rate of real GNP lasting up to ten quarters, but the effect is significant only for two quarters. Beyond the tenth quarter, the effect becomes negative and shows signs of slow reversal at around the 17th quarter. Our results tend to indicate that the mixed empirical evidence, based on small-scale Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models, could be a result of a small information set not capturing the true theoretical relationships between the two variables of interest.
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| 3 |
ID:
117896
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of various types of crimes on tourist inflows to South Africa using an ARDL bounds test approach. We used monthly data for the period March 2003 to April 2011 and found that crime in the form of car hijackings, sexual crimes, murder and kidnapping have a long run and short run negative impact on tourist visits to South Africa. World income and lagged tourist visits were found to have a positive effect on tourist inflows suggesting that tourism is a luxury good and the experience that visitors have about the country is important. These results call for the government and players in the tourism sector, as well as other crime prevention units in the country, to come up with strategies for dealing with crime. Beefing up security systems and personnel and ensuring police visibility in all places, particularly at these tourist attractions, should be considered. Information should be provided to tourists, warning them about dangerous or crime-prone areas that should be avoided at all costs, as ensuring the safety and comfort of visitors is not only important for encouraging more visitations but also for ensuring sustainable tourism growth, employment creation and poverty alleviation.
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| 4 |
ID:
101504
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of ?0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.
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