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| 1 |
ID:
088220
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The paper presents further experiments with an extended version of a comprehensive model for assessment of energy technologies and research and development (R&D) planning to evaluate the impact of innovation programs on development of Iranian electricity-supply system. This analytical instrument is a model of energy R&D resource allocation with an explicit perspective of developing countries which has been linked to a bottom-up energy-systems model. Three emerging electricity generation technologies of solar PV, wind turbine and gas fuel cell are considered in the model and the impact of innovation programs on cost-reducing innovation for them is examined. The main results provided by the modeling approach include optimal allocation of R&D resources, induced capacity expansion policies to guarantee the effectiveness of R&D activities, competitive cost of emerging technologies, impact of innovation programs on optimal structure of electricity-supply system and benefits of innovation programs in the long-run.
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| 2 |
ID:
132649
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper develops a system dynamics model of Iceland×s energy sector (UniSyD_IS) that is based on the UniSyD_NZ model of New Zealand×s energy economy. The model focuses on the energy supply sector with endogenous representation of road transport energy demand. Equilibrium interactions are performed across electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, and road transport sectors. Possible transition paths toward a low-carbon transport in Iceland are explored with implications for fuel demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated costs. The consumer sector simulates the long-term evolution of light and heavy-duty vehicles through a vehicle choice algorithm that accounts for social influences and consumer preferences. Through different scenarios, the influences of four fundamental driving factors are examined. The factors are oil price, carbon tax, fuel supply-push, and government incentives. The results show that changes in travel demand, vehicle technologies, fuel types, and efficiency improvements can support feasible transition paths to achieve sufficient reduction in GHG for both 4 °C and 2 °C climate scenarios of the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives study. Initial investment in supply infrastructure for alternative fuels will not only mitigate GHG emissions, but also could provide long-term economic benefits through fuel cost saving for consumers and reduced fuel import costs for government
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| 3 |
ID:
168643
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| Summary/Abstract |
Transition to electric vehicles (EVs) requires multidimensional policy measures incorporating vehicle fleets, energy systems, consumer behaviours, and socio-economic developments. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the implications of a tax-induced EV transition in Iceland for GHG mitigation, energy security, and economic benefits. The analytical tools include a techno-economic simulation model of the integrated energy-transport system which is linked to an Icelandic macroeconomic general equilibrium model. The impact of a new tax reform proposal by the government is compared with the current vehicle tax policy. The government proposal scenario is also examined under further inducements for EVs incorporating a value added tax exemption and banning the sale of new petroleum fuel vehicles. All scenarios are examined under a wide range of future changes in petroleum fuel prices and EV cost reduction. The results indicate that the overall macroeconomic benefits will be negligible, but they are expected to be positive in the long term as road electrification is deepened. The results show that although the tax-induced technological solution aimed at encouraging the adoption of EVs will enable a deep GHG emissions reduction in the long term, it will not be enough to meet the short-term climate targets.
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