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ID:
149913
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| Summary/Abstract |
National-level policies to promote deployment of low-carbon technologies have been suggested and used as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the context of international climate change mitigation. The long-term benefits of such policies in the context of international climate change mitigation depend on their effects on near-term emissions abatement and resultant long-term technological change that will reduce abatement costs of achieving global mitigation goals. There is also an argument that these policies might foster early-mover advantages in international low-carbon technology markets. We first review the factors that could influence such benefits and use a global integrated assessment model to present an illustrative example to understand the potential magnitude of these benefits. We find that reductions in long-term abatement costs might not provide sufficient incentives to justify policies to promote the deployment of low-carbon technologies, in particular, the emerging, higher-risk, and currently expensive alternatives. We also find that early-mover advantages can potentially provide substantial benefits, but only if these advantages are both strong and persistent. Our results suggest a role for international cooperation in low-carbon technology deployment to address the existence of free-riding opportunities in the context of global climate change mitigation.
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| 2 |
ID:
174984
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment.
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| 3 |
ID:
088265
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study simulates the internalization of the external costs of major global environmental issues using an optimal economic growth model. We merged two existing models: an integrated assessment model (IAM) and a life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) model. We sought to achieve simultaneously the following three objectives: (i) to incorporate environmental issues including global warming in the IAM; (ii) to assess environmental impacts with a bottom-up approach from the LCIA; and (iii) to internalize external costs obtained from the environmental impact study. The study also provides initial simulation results obtained from the merged model.
Simulation results indicate that global warming will account for somewhere from 10% to 40% of all external costs in the 21st century. The remaining cost will come from land use and its changes. The internalization of the external cost will cause a decline in economic growth by approximately 5%, whereas forest preservation will increase by 40% and fossil-fuel consumption will be reduced by 15%. The estimated sustainability indicators imply that a necessary condition of sustainable development is satisfied for the entire world and for the developed countries during the 21st century, but is not satisfied until the latter half of this century for the developing counties.
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| 4 |
ID:
122729
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
With a focus on the interaction between long-term climate targets and personal transport we review the electrification of light duty vehicles (LDVs) within a model that utilizes a learning-by-researching structure. By modeling the demand of vehicles, the use of fuels and emissions implied, the model solves for the optimum RD&D investments that decrease the cost of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. A range of technology and climate policy scenarios provide long term projections of vehicle use that highlight the potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. We find that even when the capital cost of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) remains higher than that of traditional combustion engine alternatives, EDVs are likely to play a key role in the decarbonisation implied by stringent climate policy. Limited innovation in batteries results in notable increases in policy costs consistent with a two degree climate policy target.
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