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| 1 |
ID:
107552
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We use the Hsiao-Granger method to test for terrorism-growth causality for seven Western European countries. In bivariate settings, the impact of economic performance on domestic terrorism is very strong. In trivariate settings, the impact of performance on terrorism diminishes. In general, we find that economic performance leads terrorist violence in robust ways only for three out of seven countries. Terrorism is almost never found to causally influence growth in bivariate and trivariate specifications. Our findings indicate that the role of economic performance in determining terrorist violence appears to have been important for some countries, whereas all attacked economies have been successful in adjusting to the threat of terrorism.
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| 2 |
ID:
121792
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article analyzes the causal relationship between terrorism and economic growth, running a series of tests for Granger non-causality with panel data for a maximum of 160 countries from 1970 to 2007. The authors find that the causal relationship between terrorism and growth is heterogeneous over time and across space. They argue that the temporal causal heterogeneity can be explained by shifting geographical and ideological patterns in terrorism associated with the end of the Cold War. Different causal mechanics across countries are ascribed to a variety of country-specific factors (the level of politico-economic development, a country's cultural affiliation, the intensity and persistence of terrorist activity, and the level of political instability). These factors govern a country's robustness to shocks from terrorism and the extent to which terrorism is motivated by economic factors. For the Cold War era, economic growth is found to have swayed terrorism for Latin American countries in intermediate development positions that were politically unstable and experienced strong terrorist activity. For the post-Cold War era, terrorism is found to be detrimental to growth for African and Islamic countries with low levels of political openness, high levels of political instability, and strong terrorist activity. The study's findings help to better understand the conflicting evidence on the terrorism-economy nexus and to give more solid counter-terrorism advice.
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| 3 |
ID:
088470
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The paper explains the growth-inequality nexus for China's provinces. The theoretical model of provincial development consists of two regions and studies the interactions of a mutually dependent development process. Owing to positive externalities, incoming trade and FDI induce imitation and hence productivity growth. The regional government can influence the economy by changing international transaction costs and providing a public infrastructure. Mobile domestic capital reinforces disparity effects. The implications of the theoretical model are tested. As the central intention of the paper is to explain provincial disparity, we directly relate income disparity (indicated by the contribution to the per capita income Theil index) to the disparity of selected income determining factors (indicated by the contribution to every other Theil index of the determinants). We examine the determinants of inequality for 28 Chinese provinces over the period 1991-2004 and apply a fixed effects panel estimation. The results confirm the theoretical framework and suggest a direct link between the factors that determine regional income and regional disparity. More specifically, it is apparent that disparities in trade, foreign and domestic capital and infrastructure have an impact on the provincial income Theil disparity, whereas provincial disparities in government expenditure and human capital do not seem to drive the income Theil disparity. Therefore, three decades of government reforms led to an extraordinary success of some provinces and increasing inequality. However, government expenditures and public human capital investments seemed to have a stabilizing effect on provincial disparity.
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| 4 |
ID:
116232
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We investigate the link between economic performance and terrorism for 18 Latin American countries from 1970 to 2007, taking into account the potentially complex nature of this link. Panel causality analysis findings indicate that during this period, terrorism had no causal effect on economic growth. By contrast, we find that growth reduced terrorism in the less developed but not in the higher developed Latin American economies. We argue that group-specific differences (linked to patterns of economic development) govern this causal heterogeneity. From a series of negative binomial regressions we gain additional support for our findings, while also identifying further determinants of terrorism.
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| 5 |
ID:
171008
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| Summary/Abstract |
After the 9/11 attacks in particular, there has been a controversial discussion in the academic and public arena on whether the United States’ close relationship with Israel has made it a likelier target of transnational terrorism. Indeed, foreign terrorist organizations with various ideological profiles have repeatedly justified attacks against U.S. interests as punishment for the (purported) special relationship between the United States and Israel. We analyze the effect of various measures of U.S. support for Israel (e.g. U.S. military assistance to Israel) on anti-American terrorism for the period 1970–2014. Using both time-series and panel approaches, we do not find that more U.S. support for Israel systematically translates into more anti-American terrorism. Rather, other systemic (e.g. U.S. dominance in the international system) and local conditions (e.g. local state failure) are found to predict the patterns of anti-American terrorism. However, as a qualification to these general findings, we also provide some (preliminary) evidence that for terrorism originating from the Middle East and Northern Africa a favorable U.S. policy stance towards Israel may indeed contribute to more anti-American terrorism.
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| 6 |
ID:
142028
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the impact of short-term precautionary selection and insurance on household decisions with respect to their participation in different saving mechanisms in rural Vietnam. A two-part model is used for the analysis and, unlike other studies, this paper investigates household decisions on participation in, and contribution, to formal and informal saving intermediaries. Furthermore, this study controls for the endogeneity of short-term precautionary motives and insurance in a household contribution model. This paper’s findings suggest that short-term precautionary motives reduce the probability of a household engaging in formal and informal saving intermediaries. In addition, insurance is found to be its substitute. Finally, precautionary savings appear to reduce participant deposits into formal saving intermediaries. However, there is no evidence of the effect of the insurance variable on household contributions to saving intermediaries.
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