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ID:
088491
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The paper investigates the relationship between changes in asset wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. Using the vector error correction cointegration model, we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. We find that housing wealth is the only factor that restores the long-run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by an external shock. In addition, our permanent-transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory.
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| 2 |
ID:
176759
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| Summary/Abstract |
The assessment of fuel poverty in mainland France is based mainly on data provided by the French national housing survey. However, the last two surveys date from 2006 and 2014. To understand the change in the number of fuel poverty households, we have developed a microsimulation tool that takes into account the three predominant factors in the notion of fuel poverty, that is, household resources, energy prices and dwelling quality. Our tool includes three multiple linear models for estimating the following: 1. disposable income; 2. energy expenditure; and 3. the probability of performing a thermal renovation. We test our model with real values for variation in energy prices and variation in disposable income and a realistic number of housing renovations. The model is calibrated to the two last French national housing survey, matches the data very well and closely reproduces the number in fuel poverty in the 2012/2014 period. We not only evaluate fuel poverty in France in 2018 but also study the effects of variations in the unemployment rate, energy prices and number of thermal renovations.
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