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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
088959
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary
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| 2 |
ID:
097264
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
To improve the reliability of sectoral mitigation potential and cost analysis, this paper made an in-depth exploration into China's electricity sector's thermal efficiency and inner structure. It is found that unlike what many literatures portray, China is actually among the world's leaders in coal-fired power plants' generating efficiencies; besides, although there are still numerous small and inefficient generating units in the current generation fleet, many of them are in fact playing important roles in supporting local economic development, meeting peak load needs, balancing heat and electricity supply and providing job opportunities to the local economy, therefore their existence does not necessarily mean low-cost mitigation potential. Given the efficiency and structural characteristics of China's electricity sector, it is pointed out that some other mitigation options, such as demand side management, IGCC and renewable energy as well as the break-through of CCS technology may play an even more important role in emission reduction. Considering the significant lock-in effects in electricity sector, it is warned that China, if continues putting majority investment in large and advanced coal-fired generating units, will face another round of chasing-after for the new and advanced renewable generation technologies. Therefore China should put more efforts in renewable generation technologies now.
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