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| 1 |
ID:
094219
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Large appliances are major power consumers in households of industrialized countries. Although their energy efficiency has been increasing substantially in past decades, still additional energy efficiency potentials exist. Energy policy that aims at realizing these potentials faces, however, growing concerns about possible adverse effects on commodity prices. Here, we address these concerns by applying the experience curve approach to analyze long-term price and energy efficiency trends of three wet appliances (washing machines, laundry dryers, and dishwashers) and two cold appliances (refrigerators and freezers). We identify a robust long-term decline in both specific price and specific energy consumption of large appliances. Specific prices of wet appliances decline at learning rates (LR) of 29±8% and thereby much faster than those of cold appliances (LR of 9±4%). Our results demonstrate that technological learning leads to substantial price decline, thus indicating that the introduction of novel and initially expensive energy efficiency technologies does not necessarily imply adverse price effects in the long term. By extending the conventional experience curve approach, we find a steady decline in the specific energy consumption of wet appliances (LR of 20-35%) and cold appliances (LR of 13-17%). Our analysis suggests that energy policy might be able to bend down energy experience curves.
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| 2 |
ID:
088964
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
High costs often prevent the market diffusion of novel and efficient energy technologies. Monitoring cost and price decline for these technologies is thus important in order to establish effective energy policy. Here, we present experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for condensing gas boilers produced and sold in the Netherlands between 1981 and 2006. For the most dominant boiler type on the Dutch market, i.e., condensing gas combi boilers, we identify learning rates of 14±1% for the average price and 16±8% for the additional price relative to non-condensing devices. Economies of scale, competitive sourcing of boiler components, and improvements in boiler assembly are among the main drivers behind the observed price decline. The net present value of condensing gas combi boilers shows an overall increasing trend. Purchasing in 2006 a gas boiler of this type instead of a non-condensing device generates a net present value of 970 EUR (Euro) and realizes CO2 (carbon dioxide) emission savings at negative costs of ?120 EUR per tonne CO2. We attribute two-thirds of the improvements in the cost-benefit performance of condensing gas combi boilers to technological learning and one-third to a combination of external effects and governmental policies
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| 3 |
ID:
115137
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are currently more expensive than conventional passenger cars but may become cheaper due to technological learning. Here, we obtain insight into the prospects of future price decline by establishing ex-post learning rates for HEVs and ex-ante price forecasts for HEVs and BEVs. Since 1997, HEVs have shown a robust decline in their price and price differential at learning rates of 7±2% and 23±5%, respectively. By 2010, HEVs were only 31±22 €2010 kW-1 more expensive than conventional cars. Mass-produced BEVs are currently introduced into the market at prices of 479±171 €2010 kW-1, which is 285±213 €2010 kW-1 and 316±209 €2010 kW-1 more expensive than HEVs and conventional cars. Our forecast suggests that price breakeven with these vehicles may only be achieved by 2026 and 2032, when 50 and 80 million BEVs, respectively, would have been produced worldwide. We estimate that BEVs may require until then global learning investments of 100-150 billion € which is less than the global subsidies for fossil fuel consumption paid in 2009. These findings suggest that HEVs, including plug-in HEVs, could become the dominant vehicle technology in the next two decades, while BEVs may require long-term policy support.
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| 4 |
ID:
103336
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Recently, the international trade of various bioenergy commodities has grown rapidly, yet this growth is also hampered by some barriers. The aim of this paper is to obtain an overview of what market actors currently perceive as major opportunities and barriers for the development of international bioenergy trade. The work focuses on three bioenergy commodities: bioethanol, biodiesel and wood pellets. Data were collected through an internet-based questionnaire. The majority of the 141 respondents had an industrial background. Geographically, two-thirds were from (mainly Western) Europe, with other minor contributions from all other continents. Results show that import tariffs and the implementation of sustainability certification systems are perceived as (potentially) major barriers for the trade of bioethanol and biodiesel, while logistics are seen mainly as an obstacle for wood pellets. Development of technical standards was deemed more as an opportunity than a barrier for all commodities. Most important drivers were high fossil fuel prices and climate change mitigation policies. Concluding, to overcome some of the barriers, specific actions will be required by market parties and policy makers. Import tariffs for biofuels could be reduced or abolished, linked to multinational trade agreements and harmonization (including provisions on technical standards and sustainability requirements).
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