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| 1 |
ID:
149957
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article proposes that optimally deployed solutions to the intermittency introduced by high penetration solar – e. g., electrical storage, optimized curtailment and demand response – could affordably transform solar power generation into the firm power delivery system modern energy economies require, thereby enabling very high solar penetration and the displacement of conventional power generation. The optimal deployment of these high-penetration-enabling solutions imply the existence of a healthy power grid, and therefore imply a central role for utilities and grid operators.
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| 2 |
ID:
169719
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| Summary/Abstract |
PV-battery systems are currently not operated in an energy system optimal way as their operation heuristic (maximization of self-consumption) is generally unaffected by competitive market signals. To evaluate potential regulatory intervention, we propose a market alignment indicator which measures the relative economic efficiency of a prosumer battery compared to a benchmark system that is completely responsive to wholesale market prices. Investigating the case of PV-battery systems in Germany, we find that scarcity signals transmitted to prosumers improve the market alignment of PV-battery systems while retaining similar levels of self-consumption and autarky rates. Both dynamic prices for generation (time-varying feed-in remuneration) and consumption (real-time electricity prices) can improve welfare, that is lowering consumer expenditures for electricity at the wholesale market. The effectiveness of the respective instrument mix depends on the relative levels of the feed-in tariff, the grid consumption to be saved and the solar generation costs. Accordingly, increasing fixed network charges can have a significant positive impact on the market alignment of prosumer batteries if combined with dynamic prices, as they change the relative composition of retail prices.
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| 3 |
ID:
111087
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper addresses the dual questions: What is the appropriate storage size and its related properties for matching very large photovoltaic plants to the grid; and what are the available technologies for achieving this end. For this purpose a "Usefulness Index" is defined, which, for any grid flexibility, leads to a PV-storage combination that allows high grid-penetration without storage being wastefully large. The paper then examines the sensitivity of this "appropriate storage size" to variations in our assumptions. The specific case of the Israeli electricity grid is employed for numerical discussion, but the formalism should be useful for wider application. In particular, the "appropriate storage size" deduced in this manner is argued to be a valuable point of departure for optimizations of a more sophisticated nature. Regarding available storage technologies, none is found to have all of the required properties for massive PV-grid penetration, but hybrid combinations should be capable of achieving this end.
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| 4 |
ID:
099360
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper provides an assessment of the large-scale implementation of distributed solar photovoltaics in Wisconsin with regard to its interaction with the utility grid, economics of varying levels of high penetration, and displaced emissions. These assessment factors are quantified using simulations with measured hourly solar radiation and weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database as primary inputs. Hourly utility load data for each electric utility in Wisconsin for a complete year were used in combination with the simulated PV output to quantify the impacts of high penetration of distributed PV on the aggregate Wisconsin electric utility load.
As the penetration rate of distributed PV systems increases, both economic and environmental benefits experience diminishing returns. At penetration rates exceeding 15-20% of the aggregate utility load peak, less of the PV-energy is utilized and the contribution of the aggregate electricity generated from PV approaches a practical limit. The limit is not affected by costs, but rather by the time-distribution of available solar radiation and mismatch with the coincidence of aggregate utility electrical loads. The unsubsidized levelized cost of electricity from PV is more than four times greater than the current market price for electricity, based on time-of-use rates, in Wisconsin. At the present time, the investment in solar PV as a cost-effective means to reduce emissions from traditional electricity generation sources is not justified.
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| 5 |
ID:
118854
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The beneficial results of the exponential expansion of photovoltaic installations in Germany and Italy are discussed. Remarkable falls in the peak price of electricity have been observed in both countries. The reasons are discussed in the light of the data from the Kombikraftwerk project. This has demonstrated, in a scaled, real-time experiment, how the demand on the German grid can be met by photovoltaics and wind with back-up from biogas and (pumped hydro) storage. We discuss the implications of the fall in price of photovoltaic cells particularly for 3rd generation technology. Using the specific example of the UK, we demonstrate the advantages of the complementary nature of wind and photovoltaic resources. We demonstrate that the wind and photovoltaic capacity targets for an all renewably powered UK are likely to be significantly lower than in Germany. We conclude by summarising the evidence in favour of a moratorium on all new electricity generation other than by the renewables.
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| 6 |
ID:
150650
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| Summary/Abstract |
Photovoltaic (PV) Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) estimates are widely utilized by decision makers to predict the long-term cost and benefits of solar PV installations, but fail to consider local climate, which impacts PV panel lifetime and performance. Specific types of solar PV panels are known to respond to climate factors differently. Mono-, poly-, and amorphous-silicon (Si) PV technologies are known to exhibit varying degradation rates and instantaneous power losses as a function of operating temperature, humidity, thermal cycling, and panel soiling. We formulate an extended LCOE calculation, which considers PV module performance and lifespan as a function of local climate. The LCOE is then calculated for crystalline and amorphous Si PV technologies across several climates. Finally, we assess the impact of various policy incentives on reducing the firm's cost of solar deployment when controlling for climate. This assessment is the first to quantify tradeoffs between technologies, geographies, and policies in a unified manner. Results suggest crystalline Si solar panels as the most promising candidate for commercial-scale PV systems due to their low degradation rates compared to amorphous technologies. Across technologies, we note the strong ability of investment subsidies in removing uncertainty and reducing the LCOE, compared to production incentives.
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| 7 |
ID:
162293
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| Summary/Abstract |
The technical and financial influences that shape customer investment in behind-the-meter PV and battery systems, provide the means to forecast and quantify customer energy transitions. By utilising techno-economic scenario analysis, this research assists policymakers to understand the impacts of their decisions on future energy market relationships between the customer and utilities. Two case studies are presented, firstly to evaluate the influence of annual increases in usage charges, and secondly the level of feed-in tariff compensation on customer PV and battery investment over a 15-year forecast period located in Perth, Australia. The findings indicate that even without annual increases in usage charges, the falling installation costs of PV and battery technologies will make customer PV-battery systems financially viable within the 15-year forecast period. Additionally, the removal of the feed-in tariff leads to greater reductions in eventual grid consumption. By the end of the forecast period, customer PV-battery systems with the highest financial performance are able to reduce grid consumption above 90% resulting in significant energy resources being transferred out of the energy market. This necessitates the market integration of customer energy resources and provides an opportunity to leverage a combination of customer and utility energy resources for the renewable energy transition.
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| 8 |
ID:
128359
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Residential photovoltaic (PV) systems in the US are often compensated at the customer's underlying retail electricity rate through net metering. Given the uncertainty in future retail rates and the inherent links between rates and the customer-economics of behind-the-meter PV, there is growing interest in understanding how potential changes in rates may impact the value of bill savings from PV. In this article, we first use a production cost and capacity expansion model to project California hourly wholesale electricity market prices under two potential electricity market scenarios, including a reference and a 33% renewables scenario. Second, based on the wholesale electricity market prices generated by the model, we develop retail rates (i.e., flat, time-of-use, and real-time pricing) for each future scenario based on standard retail rate design principles. Finally, based on these retail rates, the bill savings from PV is estimated for 226 California residential customers under two types of net metering, for each scenario. We find that high renewable penetrations can drive substantial changes in residential retail rates and that these changes, together with variations in retail rate structures and PV compensation mechanisms, interact to place substantial uncertainty on the future value of bill savings from residential PV.
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| 9 |
ID:
175240
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| Summary/Abstract |
With an increasing number of jurisdictions considering alternatives to net metering policies to financially compensate behind-the-meter solar photovoltaics (PV), customer economics will increasingly depend on its ability to reduce demand charges. Understanding these demand charge savings from PV—and how behind-the-meter storage can potentially enhance those savings—is essential to understand PV market dynamics and adoption in the coming years. This article explores how these demand charge savings vary with demand charge designs and customer load profiles, modeled for a variety of residential and commercial customers. Our findings indicate that demand charge savings are lowest under a basic, non-coincident demand charge design where the demand charge is based on the maximum demand level over the month, regardless of timing, resulting primarily from the temporal mismatch between the timing of the PV host's demand peak and PV generation. PV provides greater demand charge savings, for both commercial and residential customers, when demand charge designs are based on predefined, daytime peak periods or longer averaging intervals. Demand charge savings from PV combined with storage are almost always greater than the sum of the savings attained through either technology separately. We also explore how well demand charge savings from PV align with corresponding utility savings.
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| 10 |
ID:
176654
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study provides a comprehensive examination of factors that affect the electricity bill savings of a sample of solar adopters in four U.S. states. A multilevel model is used to capture the role of variations across state policies and local regulations, and examine their effect on savings after controlling for household characteristics. We find that solar adopters located in zip codes with higher photovoltaics penetration have significantly higher summer savings. This suggests that local policies that remove barriers for the wide adoption of solar panels across multiple households would be in alignment with increasing the private value of solar panels. Furthermore, we find that solar adopters in zip codes with smaller installed capacity have higher summer savings. The analysis in this study suggests that, to achieve higher savings, local policies that regulate size are less effective compared to policies that remove barriers to a wider photovoltaics adoption. Finally, this study finds evidence for the role of certain household-level variables in explaining the electricity bill savings of solar adopters. Solar-savings-calculators can be customized to include some of these house and resident characteristics.
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| 11 |
ID:
128408
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the economic viability of small-scale, grid-connected photovoltaics in the Brazilian residential and commercial sectors after the introduction of the net metering regulation in April 2012. This study uses the discounted cash flow method to calculate the specific investment costs that are necessary for photovoltaic systems to be economically viable for each of the 63 distribution networks in Brazil. We compare these values to the system costs that are estimated in the comprehensive study on photovoltaics that was developed by the Brazilian Association of Electric and Electronic Industries (ABINEE). In our calculation, we utilize the current electricity tariffs, including fees and taxes, which we obtained through telephone interviews and publicly available information. We obtained a second important parameter by simulating PV-systems with the program PV?Sol at the distribution company headquarters' locations. In our base case scenario that reflects the current situation, in none of the distribution networks photovoltaics is economically viable in either the commercial or residential sectors. We improved the environment for grid-connected photovoltaics in our scenarios by assuming both lower PV-system costs and a lower discount rate to determine the effect on photovoltaics viability.
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| 12 |
ID:
171478
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| Summary/Abstract |
Renewable energy electricity, such as photovoltaic (PV) power generation, has the benefits of strengthening energy security, addressing climate change, reducing air pollution, etc., but there are some impediments to deployment of renewable energy electricity: higher costs than fossil fuels, intermittent energy production, site constraints, etc. Korea changed its renewable energy electricity support systems from feed-in tariff (FIT) to a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) in 2012. This study evaluates FIT versus RPS in terms of the time to reach grid parity for PVs. Using a learning curve model, we calculate the learning rate of PV power generation during the FIT and RPS periods. We find that the PV learning rate during the RPS period was 18.44%, much higher than that during the FIT period, −0.28%, and R2 is 0.9861 and 0.7346 in the RPS and FIT periods, respectively. Using the calculated learning rate in the RPS period, we also predict that grid parity for PVs is expected in 2025 in Korea.
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| 13 |
ID:
098563
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this second paper, which studies the hourly generation data from the Israel Electric Corporation for the year 2006, with a view to adding very large-scale photovoltaic power (VLS-PV) plants, three major extensions are made to the results reported in our first paper. In the first extension, PV system simulations are extended to include the cases of 1- and 2-axis sun-tracking, and 2-axis concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) technologies. Secondly, the effect of distributing VLS-PV plants among 8 Negev locations, for which hourly metrological data exist, is studied. Thirdly, in addition to studying the effect of VLS-PV on grid penetration, the present paper studies its effect on grid ramping requirements. The principal results are as follows: (i) sun-tracking improves grid matching at high but not low levels of grid flexibility; (ii) geographical distribution has little effect on grid penetration; (iii) VLS-PV significantly increases grid ramping requirements, particularly for CPV systems, but not beyond existing ramping capabilities; (iv) geographical distribution considerably ameliorates this effect.
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| 14 |
ID:
115145
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents a critical view of Florida's photovoltaic (PV) subsidy system and proposes an econometric model of PV system installation and generation costs. Using information on currently installed systems, average installation cost relations for residential and commercial systems are estimated and cost-efficient scales of installation panel wattage are identified. Productive efficiency in annual generating capacity is also examined under flexible panel efficiency assumptions. We identify potential gains in efficiency and suggest changes in subsidy system constraints, providing important guidance for the implementation of future incentive programs. Specifically, we find that the subsidy system discouraged residential applicants from installing at the cost-efficient scale but over-incentivized commercial applicants, resulting in inefficiently sized installations.
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| 15 |
ID:
116945
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Due largely to recent dramatic cost reductions, photovoltaics (PVs) are poised to make a significant contribution to electricity supply. In particular, distributed applications of PV on rooftops, brownfields, and other similar applications - hold great technical potential. In order for this potential to be realized, however, PV must be "cost-effective"-that is, it must be sufficiently financially appealing to attract large amounts of investment capital.
Electricity costs for most commercial and industrial end-users come in two forms: consumption (kWh) and demand (kW). Although rates vary, for a typical larger commercial or industrial user, demand charges account for about ~40% of total electricity costs. This paper uses a case study of PV on a large university campus to reveal that even very large PV installations will often provide very small demand reductions. As a result, it will be very difficult for PV to demonstrate cost-effectiveness for large commercial customers, even if PV costs continue to drop. If policymakers would like PV to play a significant role in electricity generation - for economic development, carbon reduction, or other reasons - then rate structures will need significant adjustment, or improved distributed storage technologies will be needed.
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| 16 |
ID:
113469
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A high energy return on energy investment (EROI) of an energy production process is crucial to its long-term viability. The EROI of conventional thermal electricity from fossil fuels has been viewed as being much higher than those of renewable energy life-cycles, and specifically of photovoltaics (PVs). We show that this is largely a misconception fostered by the use of outdated data and, often, a lack of consistency among calculation methods. We hereby present a thorough review of the methodology, discuss methodological variations and present updated EROI values for a range of modern PV systems, in comparison to conventional fossil-fuel based electricity life-cycles.
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| 17 |
ID:
150726
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| Summary/Abstract |
The key objective of this study is the examination of the regulatory and policy framework of the feed-in-tariff (FiT) scheme, specifically its effect on both the electricity pricing as well as the local and European renewable energy sources (RES) market, and accordingly the definition of its feasibility as a scheme for the further development and promotion of renewable energy technologies (RETs). This work discusses the FiT scheme implementation for photovoltaics (PVs) in four case study countries - Denmark, Germany, Cyprus, and Spain. A model describing the conditions under which a FiT scheme is led to collapse is also introduced and a parametric analysis towards revealing the sensitivity of the different parameters affecting it, is delivered. The study concludes with significant policy implications that should be considered for future implementation of the scheme. For the prevention of the collapse of the scheme, the tariff's value ought to be determined by each country's government based on a set of influencing factors including the operational, capital and investment costs of each RET, the standard cost of renewable energy (RE) generation and the avoidance cost, which would be regularly reviewed depending on the excess of the annual capacity.
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| 18 |
ID:
099619
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Renewable Energy Sources Act of Germany has been a success story, thanks to the advantages that derive from promoting energy from renewable sources. The way in which renewable energy sources are promoted under the Renewable Energy Sources Act is a pioneering approach that is unprecedented in Germany or any other country. However, this type of support for innovation cannot be continued indefinitely, for if the federal government's target is of obtaining 30 per cent of electricity supplies from renewable sources by 2020, this form of support must be re-examined and further developed. Renewable sources of energy are important not purely for environmental reasons but also because they contribute to energy security. Nevertheless, it is important that the supply of energy be climate friendly, environment friendly and cost effective, not only in Germany but throughout the world.
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| 19 |
ID:
115108
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Photovoltaic (PV) cells, onshore wind turbines, internet technologies, and storage technologies have the potential to fundamentally change electricity markets in the years ahead. Photovoltaic cells are the most disruptive energy technology as they allow consumers of all sizes to produce power by themselves-new actors in the power market can begin operating with a new bottom-up control logic. Unsubsidised PV markets may start to take off in 2013, fuelling substantial growth where PV power is getting cheaper than grid or diesel backup electricity for commercial consumers. Managing loads and achieving a good match between power consumption and weather-dependent power production will likely become a key issue. This consumption-production balance may trigger massive innovation and investment in energy management technologies involving different kinds of storage and controls. Increasing autonomy and flexibility of consumers challenges the top-down control logic of traditional power supply and pushes for a more decentralised and multi-layered system. How rapidly and smoothly this transformation occurs depends to a large extent on the adaptation speed of the regulatory framework and on the ability of market players to develop appropriate business models. The paper discusses conflicts of interest; hurdles and drivers; opportunities; and traps for this perspective.
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| 20 |
ID:
109384
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Net metering has become a widespread mechanism in the U.S. for supporting customer adoption of distributed photovoltaics (PV), but has faced challenges as PV installations grow to a larger share of generation in a number of states. This paper examines the value of the bill savings that customers receive under net metering, and the associated role of retail rate design, based on a sample of approximately two hundred residential customers of California's two largest electric utilities. We find that the bill savings per kWh of PV electricity generated varies by more than a factor of four across the customers in the sample, which is largely attributable to the inclining block structure of the utilities' residential retail rates. We also compare the bill savings under net metering to that received under three potential alternative compensation mechanisms, based on California's Market Price Referent (MPR). We find that net metering provides significantly greater bill savings than a full MPR-based feed-in tariff, but only modestly greater savings than alternative mechanisms under which hourly or monthly net excess generation is compensated at the MPR rate.
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