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ID:
090934
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's emergence as a major player in world trade is well known, but its growing role in global finance might have been underappreciated. China is the second largest creditor in the world today, with a net creditor position of 30 percent of GDP in 2008. We test the importance of the growth differential, demographics, government debt, financial depth and the exchange rate in shaping China's net foreign asset position. Our empirical results highlight the sharp fall in the young-age dependence as one key driver behind China's puzzlingly large net lender position and also confirm the neoclassical prediction that faster growth attracts more capital inflows. Looking ahead, our findings suggest that China will unlikely turn into a meaningful net debtor nation over the next two decades.
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| 2 |
ID:
099165
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper discusses two methods of measuring net foreign assets(NFA): directly using the financial account and indirectly using the current account. The former method is found to be more accurate than the latter method. The paper also includes a detailed discussion of the valuation methodology. The results show that China's NFA are much lower than the cumulative current account surplus or the cumulative foreign exchange reserves. This leads to an underestimation of growth in foreign direct investment and an overestimation of the capacity of foreign exchange reserves to cope with possible withdrawals. Therefore, the Chinese Government should pay more attention to valuation issues to obtain more accurate measurement of NF A. Meanwhile, the Chinese monetary authority should relax its control on the foreign exchange settlement system, allow the private sector to hold a certain amount of foreign exchange, and encourage foreign assets to be denominated in RMB to solve structural problems, including entity and currency mismatch.
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