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ID: 091000

It takes two: a dyadic analysis of Civil War duration and outcome / Cunningham, David E; Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede; Salehyan, Idean

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede	Journal Article
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2009.

Summary/Abstract

Theories of conflict emphasize dyadic interaction, yet existing empirical studies of civil war focus largely on state attributes and pay little attention to nonstate antagonists. We recast civil war in a dyadic perspective, and consider how nonstate actor attributes and their relationship to the state influence conflict dynamics. We argue that strong rebels, who pose a military challenge to the government, are likely to lead to short wars and concessions. Conflicts where rebels seem weak can become prolonged if rebels can operate in the periphery so as to defy a government victory yet are not strong enough to extract concessions. Conflicts should be shorter when potential insurgents can rely on alternative political means to violence. We examine these hypotheses in a dyadic analysis of civil war duration and outcomes, using new data on nonstate actors and conflict attributes, finding support for many of our conjectures.

Key Words

Conflict Termination ; Nonstate Actors ; Rebels ; Conflict Outcome ; Civil War

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ID: 163499

No peace, no war’ proponents? How pro-regime militias affect civil war termination and outcomes / Aliyev, Huseyn

Aliyev, Huseyn	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

Previous research on non-state actors involved in civil wars has tended to disregard the role of extra-dyad agents in influencing conflict outcomes. Little is known as to whether the presence of such extra-dyadic actors as pro-regime militias affects conflict termination and outcomes. This article develops and tests a number of hypotheses on the pro-government militias’ effect upon civil war outcomes. It proposes that pro-regime militias involved in intrastate conflicts tend to act as proponents of ‘no peace, no war’, favouring low-activity violence and ceasefires over other conflict outcomes. These hypotheses are examined using an expanded dataset on pro-government militias and armed conflict in a statistical analysis of 229 civil war episodes from 1991 to 2015. These findings shed new light on the role of extra-state actors in civil wars.

Key Words

Armed Groups ; Conflict Outcome ; Civil War ; Extra-State

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