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ID: 094737

On the duration and sustainability of transnational terrorist o / Blomberg, S Brock; Engel, Rozlyn C; Sawyer, Reid

Sawyer, Reid	Journal Article
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Publication

2010.

Summary/Abstract

This article aims to improve scholars' understanding of how transnational terrorist organizations emerge, survive, thrive, and eventually die.The authors use a data set that catalogues terrorist organizations and their attacks over time (the ITERATE database of thousands of terrorist events from 1968 through 2007) and merge those data with socioeconomic information about the environment in which each attack occurs. They use these data to trace the life cycle pattern of terrorist activity and the organizations that perpetrate them. They identify at least two types of terrorist organizations- recidivists and one-hit wonders. The authors find that recidivist organizations, those that have repeatedly attacked, are less likely to survive once political and socioeconomic factors have been included. However, they find that sporadic or one-hit wonders are not easily deterred by socioeconomic factors, leaving open a role for counterinsurgency tactics.

Key Words

Terrorism ; Conflict ; Survival Analysis

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ID: 091064

White paper prepared for the secretary of defense task force on DoD nuclear weapons management: tradeoffs and paradoxes, terrorism, deterrence and nuclear weapons / Helfstein, Scott; Meese, Michael J; Rassler, Don; Sawyer, Reid

Helfstein, Scott	Journal Article
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Publication

2009.

Summary/Abstract

This article was written at the request of the Secretary of Defense Task Force on DoD Nuclear Weapons Management. While this analysis suggests that certain types of terrorists can be deterred from certain types of attacks, it is less optimistic about the use of nuclear weapons in a terrorist deterrent strategy. A broad approach to deterrence may be effective against certain types of terrorist groups and attacks, making it crucially important to disaggregate the terrorist threat when setting policy. The article goes on to address two types of terrorist groups with a "global reach" that pose a serious threat to the United States: non-state actors driven by doctrines permitting catastrophic attacks and state-sponsored groups capable of carrying out catastrophic attacks. The analysis reveals a number of previously unappreciated tradeoffs and paradoxes associated with the deterrence of terrorists.

Key Words

Terrorism ; Nuclear Weapons ; Deterrence ; United States ; Non-State Actors ; DoD Nuclear Weapons Management

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