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| 1 |
ID:
116708
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article explains why: (a) consumers underinvest in new car fuel economy by opting to buy large vehicles; (b) macro shifts in vehicle classes have occurred in the last decades; and how (c) the effects of vehicle fuel economy and shifts in vehicle type influence the growth path of gasoline demand, which is the key to designing effective energy efficiency goals for transport. From 2008, 1.9 EXJ (Exajoules) of energy were consumed in Japan by private vehicles producing 124 MtCO2 emissions. For the period 1980 to 2008, we estimated: (1) gasoline demand for three vehicle sizes; (2) vehicle sales; (3) new car fuel economy changes (the 'real' technical change); and (4) vehicle stocks. Using a data sample for 1980-2008 we found that: (a) in the short term consumers buy fuel economy, that is sales of mini and small cars increase, but this is not sustained in the long term: and (b) consumers increasingly traded in their cars for larger cars. A further finding was that gasoline demand is projected to increase to 2.3 EXJ by 2035, even with a growing number of mini cars. The policy implication is clear: Japan's policy to reduce oil dependency to 80% by 2030 is in peril as long as buyers prefer larger cars and drive ever longer distances.
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| 2 |
ID:
187586
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| Summary/Abstract |
We assess the changes in Mexico's privately owned vehicle fleet and tax losses (fuel duty on gasoline) associated to the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) through a diffusion model. Our projections for 2050 focus on a) electricity use of EVs, b) gasoline use and c) revenue for Mexico's treasury. The model uses population growth and vehicles sales to project two items: a) EV diffusion and b) substitution rates of ICVs with EVs. The equation uses vehicle km travelled and average consumption of fuel to calculate gasoline use of vehicles.
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| 3 |
ID:
091518
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Because of high oil prices, and climate change policy, governments are now seeking ways to improve new car fuel economy thus contributing to air quality and energy security. One strategy is to increase dieselisation rates of the vehicle fleet. Recent trends in fuel economy show improvement since 1995, however, efforts need to go further if the EU Voluntary Agreement targets on CO2 (a greenhouse gas emission standard) are to be achieved. Trends show diesel car sales have accelerated rapidly and that the advantage of new car fuel economy of diesel cars over gasoline ones is narrowing posing a new challenge. We estimate the demand for new car fuel economy in the UK. In the long-run consumers buy fuel economy, but not in the short-run. We found that long-term income and price changes were the main drivers to achieve improvements particularly for diesel cars and that there is no break in the trend of fuel economy induced by the agreement adopted in the 1990s. Policy should target more closely both consumer choice of, and use of, diesel cars.
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