|
|
|
Sort Order |
|
|
|
Items / Page
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
150774
|
|
|
|
|
| Summary/Abstract |
Affordable energy supply and reductions in emissions of local air pollution and greenhouse gases are each important aspects of South Africa's goals. Many traditional solutions, however, work in contradiction to one another. This work investigates effects on estimated emissions and costs of mitigation strategies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interaction Synergies (GAINS) model to identify policies that satisfy multiple goals. Eight scenarios that describe air pollution control options and mixes of energy production technologies are implemented in GAINS, which quantifies country-wide air pollution and greenhouse emissions and costs of controls. Emissions and costs trajectories are compared to the business as usual case, which projects CO2 emissions to increase by 60% by 2050 compared to 2015. Results show that replacing all coal generation with renewables reduces CO2 emissions in 2050 by 8% compared to 2015, and that aggressive policy targeting the whole energy sector reduces CO2 emissions in 2050 by 40%. GAINS is used to show co-benefits and tradeoffs of each scenario, such as reductions in emissions control costs that accompany a switch to renewables. The approach provides supporting evidence for policies that exploit co-benefits and avoid contradictions by assessing multiple aspects of the energy sector within the integrated framework provided by the GAINS modeling platform.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
ID:
104974
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
ID:
117012
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2012.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
Many estimates of the social cost of CO2 emissions (SCCO2) can be found in the climate economics literature. However, to date few estimates of the social costs of other greenhouse gases have been published, and most are not comparable to current estimates of the SCCO2. We construct an integrated assessment model that combines MAGICC and economic components from DICE to estimate the social costs of CO2, CH4, and N2O for the years 2010-2050, using assumptions similar to the recent U.S. government interagency SCC working group. We compare our estimates of the social costs for non-CO2 gases to those produced using the SCCO2 to value "CO2-equivalent" emissions, calculated using global warming potentials (GWPs). We examine the estimation error associated with using GWPs for single- and multi-gas abatement policies. In both cases the error can be large, so estimates of the social costs of these gases should be used whenever possible. However, if direct estimates are not available the value of reductions estimated using GWPs will typically have lower absolute errors than default estimates of zero, and provide lower bounds of the abatement benefits.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
ID:
150776
|
|
|
|
|
| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
ID:
092562
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2009.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
Potentials for bio-energy have been estimated earlier on the basis of estimates of potentially available land, excluding certain types of land use or land cover (land required for food production and forests). In this paper, we explore how such estimates may be influenced by other factors such as land degradation, water scarcity and biodiversity concerns. Our analysis indicates that of the original bio-energy potential estimate of 150, 80 EJ occurs in areas classified as from mild to severe land degradation, water stress, or with high biodiversity value. Yield estimates were also found to have a significant impact on potential estimates. A further 12.5% increase in global yields would lead to an increase in bio-energy potential of about 50%. Changes in bio-energy potential are shown to have a direct impact on bio-energy use in the energy model TIMER, although the relevant factor is the bio-energy potential at different cost levels and not the overall potential.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
ID:
110694
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
The health and climate impacts of available household cooking options in developing countries vary sharply. Here, we analyze and compare these impacts (health; climate) and the potential co-benefits from the use of fuel and stove combinations. Our results indicate that health and climate impacts span 2 orders of magnitude among the technologies considered. Indoor air pollution is heavily impacted by combustion performance and ventilation; climate impacts are influenced by combustion performance and fuel properties including biomass renewability. Emission components not included in current carbon trading schemes, such as black carbon particles and carbon monoxide, can contribute a large proportion of the total climate impact. Multiple 'improved' stove options analyzed in this paper yield roughly equivalent climate benefits but have different impacts on indoor air pollution. Improvements to biomass stoves can improve indoor air quality, which nonetheless remains significantly higher than for stoves that use liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons. LPG- and kerosene-fueled stoves have unrivaled air quality benefits and their climate impacts are also lower than all but the cleanest stoves using renewable biomass.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
ID:
104984
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
ID:
107522
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GWel, 405 GWel or even 1,000 GWel could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13-15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWhel in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO2-equivalents/kWhel) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130-900 CO2-eq./kWhel), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO2-eq./kWhel in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
ID:
176701
|
|
|
|
|
| Summary/Abstract |
China, the world's largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with previous studies. It integrates unit-level information into integrated assessment modelling and scenarios and considers the interactions among different socioeconomic pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating nuclear technology deployment. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The share of annual nuclear generation across scenarios/studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total nuclear power generation in China – around 4000 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclear power plants.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|