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| 1 |
ID:
111068
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Policies to address climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions might be made more effective if we can better understand the pathways by which transformative technologies become significant components of energy systems. Indeed, the central question of mitigation revolves around the scope of policy to influence or accelerate the diffusion of low-carbon technology. While market forces clearly influence technology deployment, understanding the longer-term and large-scale changes in the energy system requires a broader understanding of the relative influence of institutional, behavioral, and social factors. This paper presents the results of an interview-based, comparative case approach to investigating systematically the relative importance of these non-economic factors influencing technological change across technology and country contexts. We identified two low-carbon energy sectors (bioenergy and nuclear power) that underwent significant changes over the past 50 years in the energy portfolio of three countries: Brazil, Sweden, and the United States. We identified nine categories of factors that might contribute to these large technological transformations, and then evaluated, via interviews with sector participants in each country, which factors were viewed as being determinative or highly influential in the trajectory of that technology in their country context. We also draw out policy implications and directions for future research.
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| 2 |
ID:
125451
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a "hypothetical counterfactual baseline" (HCB) scenario and low carbon ("abatement") scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important.
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| 3 |
ID:
125545
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We use a survey to compare consumers' stated interest in conventional gasoline (CV), hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and pure electric vehicles (EV) of varying designs and prices. Data are from 508 households representing new vehicle buyers in San Diego County, California in 2011. The mixed-mode survey collected information about access to residential recharge infrastructure, three days of driving patterns, and desired vehicle designs and motivations via design games. Across the higher and lower price scenarios, a majority of consumers designed and selected some form of PHEV for their next new vehicle, smaller numbers designed an HEV or a conventional vehicle, and only a few percent designed an EV. Of those who did not design an EV, the most frequent concerns with EVs were limited range, charger availability, and higher vehicle purchase prices. Positive interest in HEVs, PHEVs and EVs was associated with vehicle images of intelligence, responsibility, and support of the environment and nation (United States). The distribution of vehicle designs suggests that cheaper, smaller battery PHEVs may achieve more short-term market success than larger battery PHEVs or EV. New car buyers' present interests align with less expensive first steps in a transition to electric-drive vehicles.
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| 4 |
ID:
092743
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Carbon pricing is an important mechanism for providing companies with incentives to invest in carbon abatement. Price formation in carbon markets involves a complex interplay between policy targets, dynamic technology costs, and market rules. Carbon pricing may under-deliver investment due to R&D externalities, requiring additional policies which themselves affect market prices. Also, abatement costs depend on the extent of technology deployment due to learning-by-doing. This paper introduces an analytical framework based on marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves with the aim of providing an intuitive understanding of the key dynamics and risk factors in carbon markets. The framework extends the usual static MAC representation of the market to incorporate policy interactions and some technology cost dynamics. The analysis indicates that supporting large-scale deployment of mature abatement technologies suppresses the marginal cost of abatement, sometimes to zero, whilst increasing total abatement costs. However, support for early stage R&D may reduce both total abatement cost and carbon price risk. An important aspect of the analysis is in elevating risk management considerations into energy policy formation, as the results of the stochastic modelling indicate wide distributions for the emergence of carbon prices and public costs around the policy expectations.
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