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| 1 |
ID:
110749
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels.
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| 2 |
ID:
092759
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980-2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO2 emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO2 emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO2 emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO2 emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.
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