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| 1 |
ID:
109690
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
As the likelihood increases that Russia will dominate the European Union's (EU) energy supply, questions have emerged as to whether Russia would use the energy weapon to influence EU member policies and extract political concessions. Countervailing voices argue that Russia would be restricted by interdependence and market forces. As of yet, no one has analyzed the assumptions underlying the energy weapon thesis. Moreover, many scholars examining EU-Russian energy relations rely on non-Russian data. This article seeks to fill several informational and theoretical gaps by including Russian sources and first-hand data and by systematically analyzing the conditions that must obtain before an energy supplier can successfully convert its energy resources into political power. The resulting model can be utilized to analyze the capacity of a supplier to use the energy weapon-whether it be Russia, Iran, Venezuela or any other energy heavyweight-and to assess whether the deployment was successful. Five purported cases of Russian manipulation are analyzed in this article and the findings indicate that, more often than not, Russia failed to achieve political concessions. Looking to the future, the plausibility of Russia using the energy weapon to exploit Europe's dependence, particularly on gas, is also examined.
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| 2 |
ID:
093530
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn.
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| 3 |
ID:
179658
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The rising share of natural gas in global energy mix has resulted in concern over its security recently. But research from a perspective of exporting countries has not attracted enough attention. This study examines natural gas security from a supply vs. demand perspective. Firstly, a natural gas security index (NGSI) is formulated to quantify the NGSI score (NGSItot) of 22 selected countries, and the approach is based on a quantitative application of the “four As” of energy security. Secondly, a balance NGSI score (NGSIbla) matrix is introduced to gauge how well a specific country manages the trade-offs among the “four As”. Key research findings are as follows: (1) Proven gas reserves per capita and Annual median PM2.5 concentration are more important than other indicators. (2) Nations that have a more balanced pattern against these four-A dimensions rank better. (3) According to the NGSIbla, eight countries fall into the Good group, ten in the Limited group, and four in the Weak group. Consequently, this study suggests that differentiated policy frameworks should be tailor-made for specific country to ensure natural gas security. This article contributes a replicable method of energy security evaluation, and a comprehensive policy framework to enhance natural gas security.
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| 4 |
ID:
092762
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Central Norway is expected to have a gap of 8 TWh in 2010 because of heavy investments in energy-intensive industries. The region has two landing sites for natural gas and a considerable potential for wind power to cover the gap. Small-scale hydropower and upgrading of existing hydropower plants also constitute a regional energy potential. Paradoxically, the most realistic investment prospect seems to be extensive investments in new transmission lines to cover the supply deficit. The aim of this paper is to present a problem of regional supply security and public intervention to illustrate and discuss the challenges of arriving at long-term capacity adequacy in deregulated electricity markets.
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| 5 |
ID:
116944
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Serbia has established a great part of new legislative and institutional framework as a basis for all energy sub-sectors' development in compliance with EU energy acquis. Main objectives of Serbian energy policy outlined in the new Energy Law are focused to increasing the energy supply security, energy efficiency, competitiveness of the energy market, use of renewable energy sources and environmental protection. Further steps of Serbia toward full EU membership concerning the new energy policy regulatory framework involve implementing and enforcing legislation. Besides considering the issue of Serbian energy policy and degree of its framework's alignment with the EU acquis, this paper provides an overview of new development strategies in the oil sector. The aim of Gazprom neft, a majority owner of the Petroleum industry of Serbia, is to increase crude oil production to 3 million tonnes, refining and sales volume of petroleum products to 5 million tonnes by 2020. Strategic development projects in crude oil and petroleum products transportation are: petroleum product pipeline construction in Serbia and Pan-European oil pipeline.
The basic prerequisites for oil supply security, regarding the future high dependency of Serbian economy on imported oil, are establishment of the emergency oil stocks and diversification of supply sources.
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| 6 |
ID:
117303
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Achieving security of gas supply implies diversifying gas sources, while having enough supply, transportation, and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and supply interruptions. Devising a strategy for securing gas supply is not straightforward because gas supply depends on complex interactions of production, demand and infrastructure, and it is exposed to economic, regulatory, political, environmental and technical risks. To address this complexity, we propose a simulation approach that replicates the structure of the gas supply chain, including transportation constraints and demand fluctuations. We build and calibrate a computer model for the Colombian gas sector, and run the model to assess the impact of expanding transportation capacity and increasing market flexibility on the security of supply. Our analysis focuses on the operation and planned and proposed expansions of the transportation infrastructure because adequate regulation and development of this infrastructure can contribute to increase the security of supply in the gas sector. We find that proposed import facilities, specifically LNG import terminals at Buenaventura, increase system's security under the current market structure.
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