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| 1 |
ID:
092815
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| Publication |
2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Energy dependency (ED) implies the extent to which an economy relies upon imports in order to meet its energy needs. The ED is calculated as net imports divided by the sum of gross inland energy consumption plus bunkers. This study aims at obtaining numerical equations to estimate of Turkey's energy dependency based on basic energy indicators and sectoral energy consumption by using artificial neural network (ANN) technique. It seeks to contribute to the strategies necessary to preserve the supply-demand balance of Turkey. For this purpose, two different models were used to train the ANN approach. In Model 1, main energy indicators such as total production of primary energy per capita, total gross electricity generation per capita and final energy consumption per capita were used in the input layer of the ANN while sectoral energy consumption per capita was used in Model 2.
The ED was in the output layer for both models. Different models were employed to estimate the ED with a high confidence for future projections. The R2 values of ED were found to be 0.999 for both models. In accordance with the analysis results, ED is expected to increase from 72% to 82% within 14 years of period. Consequently, the utilization of renewable energy sources and nuclear energy is strictly recommended to ensure the ED stability in Turkey.
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| 2 |
ID:
126503
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The aim of this paper is to improve the basis for the comparison of energy products. The paper will discuss important methodological issues with regard to various energy indicators and it will, by means of a few selected energy indicators, show examples of results for hydropower, wind power and electricity from biomass, gas and coal. Lastly it will suggest methods to achieve results which are more consistent when comparing electricity production technologies.
In general, methodological issues can affect the results of life cycle assessments. In this paper, the authors have focused on the effect of system boundaries for energy indicators and found that the internal ranking of cases within one electricity generation technology is dependent on the indicator used. These variations do not, however, alter the general ranking of the major technologies studied.
The authors suggest that future assessments should focus on a smaller set of indicators: the Cumulative Energy Demand (CED), which is the most "universal" indicator, Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) for assessment of upstream activities, and a suggested "Cumulative Fossil Energy Demand" (CFED) for resource depletion assessments. There is also a need for stricter standardisation and increased transparency in the assessment of energy products.
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| 3 |
ID:
175891
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| Summary/Abstract |
To strengthen the security of supply of the Serbian gas sector, it is necessary to analyze the impact of planned strategic measures. The analysis involves the identification of the most influential threats to the security of natural gas supply and prioritization of the strategic measures for overcoming the consequences of threats. The proposed methodology is based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The obtained weights for the identified threats and strategic measures are formed according to experts' judgments. The results of the experts’ judgments indicate that the most influential threats are termination of supply at the border with Hungary, termination of supply from Russia, and termination of supply from gas storage. The strategic measure with the highest priority is the so-called “Turkish Stream” project. Two additional strategic measures (gas interconnection Serbia – Bulgaria and the project of expanding the capacities of underground gas storage) could also be beneficial. The final results are validated by two security of supply indicators - Infrastructural Supply Standard (N-1) and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The N-1 is implemented to examine the preparedness of the gas system for disruption of the largest source in the network, while the HHI is implemented to examine the diversification of the imports.
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