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| 1 |
ID:
137680
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study evaluates scenarios for the oil production in Peru applying a Hubbert model. Two scenarios for the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) were proposed: the first, in which low investments in E&P and social and environmental barriers undermine the development of oil resources beyond the limits characterized as 2P; the second, more optimistic, in which current exploratory and production areas in Amazonia and low-explored Offshore-Shelf basins are developed, thus, increasing EUR to 3P reserves plus contingent resources. Findings show that oil production in Peru has not followed a Single-Hubbert pattern, except for the area with more drilling activity and the highest accumulated production in the Northwest coast. Actually, institutional and regulation changes and less-attractive periods for operators due to poor results in oil discoveries explain why a multi-Hubbert approach better depicted the oil production in Peru. Peru has the potential to achieve a second peak of 274 kbpd of crude oil, overcoming the peak of 195 kbpd, reached in 1982. However, most of the remaining production would be located in Amazonia, where social and environmental issues pose critical challenges.
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| 2 |
ID:
125408
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study assesses the impacts of promoting, through auctions, centralized solar power generation (concentrated solar power - CSP, and photovoltaic solar panels - PV) on the Brazilian power system. Four types of CSP plants with parabolic troughs were simulated at two sites, Bom Jesus da Lapa and Campo Grande, and PV plants were simulated at two other sites, Recife and Rio de Janeiro. The main parameters obtained for each plant were expanded to other suitable sites in the country (totaling 17.2 GW in 2040), as inputs in an optimization model for evaluating the impacts of the introduction of centralized solar power on the expansion of the electricity grid up to 2040. This scenario would be about USD$ 185 billion more expensive than a business as usual scenario, where expansion solely relies on least-cost options. Hence, for the country to incentivize the expansion of centralized solar power, specific auctions for solar energy should be adopted, as well as complementary policies to promote investments in R&D and the use of hybrid systems based on solar and fuels in CSP plants.
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| 3 |
ID:
115679
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Rural electrification is considered to be a key strategy for poverty alleviation and sustainable development. It should therefore include (1) expanding electricity access and (2) enable new consumers to increase their electricity consumption. In this paper we ask how Brazil's recent rural electrification efforts have managed to reach these objectives. A new method to measure energy and income equity is presented which uses estimations of non-parametric density curves for the analysis of energy and income distributional trends following electrification. By applying our method to a panel data set from two Brazilian states situated in the country's poor northeast region we find that (1) rural consumers take up electricity consumption after electrification, and that (2) low consumption levels give way to higher electricity consumption levels after only a few years. This indicates immediate social benefits for households through consumption of electricity services. However, our analysis cannot verify a direct link between electricity use and rural income generation in the short term. The results emphasize the need for government and other actors to integrate rural electrification into broader rural development strategies in order to enable long-term welfare increases through electricity use.
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| 4 |
ID:
097519
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Historically, Brazil has promoted the development and sales of light duty vehicles running on ethanol (firstly, ethanol-dedicated cars, and recently flexfuel cars). In the 1990s, the country also favored the sales of compact cars to middle and low-income classes. However, in the last years, the profile of vehicles sold in Brazil has converged towards larger and less-efficient vehicles. In 2008, Brazil launched the vehicle labeling program. Based on the outcomes of the historical programs oriented towards the development of automotive innovations, and on a survey conducted with the country's main auto makers, this article evaluates whether the vehicle labeling program will both improve the energy efficiency of light vehicles, and introduce new technologies. Our results indicate that, despite its virtuous intentions, the program will not control the tendency of rising fuel consumption of passenger cars sold in Brazil. Therefore, other policies are needed to boost innovations in Brazil's automotive industry.
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| 5 |
ID:
096725
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Historically, Brazil has promoted the development and sales of light duty vehicles running on ethanol (firstly, ethanol-dedicated cars, and recently flexfuel cars). In the 1990s, the country also favored the sales of compact cars to middle and low-income classes. However, in the last years, the profile of vehicles sold in Brazil has converged towards larger and less-efficient vehicles. In 2008, Brazil launched the vehicle labeling program. Based on the outcomes of the historical programs oriented towards the development of automotive innovations, and on a survey conducted with the country's main auto makers, this article evaluates whether the vehicle labeling program will both improve the energy efficiency of light vehicles, and introduce new technologies. Our results indicate that, despite its virtuous intentions, the program will not control the tendency of rising fuel consumption of passenger cars sold in Brazil. Therefore, other policies are needed to boost innovations in Brazil's automotive industry.
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| 6 |
ID:
125635
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an effective technology for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from large-scale fossil fuel use. Nonetheless, it is not yet commercially viable on a large scale, and its inclusion into countries' energy planning agendas depends on realistic assessments of its emission reduction benefits.
The use of CCS leads to energy penalties resulting from direct consumption of additional energy, and results in indirect CO2 equivalent emissions outside plant boundaries, due to both energy consumption and leakages. Accounting for these emissions allows for an evaluation of the mitigation benefits of CCS.
This study performs a life-cycle assessment (LCA), with and without CCS, for a coal-fired power plant located in Brazil. Findings show that when indirect emissions are taken into account, a plant which captures 90% of its CO2 will have its CO2 equivalent emissions capture potential, based on a global warming potential metric with a 100-year time horizon, reduced to 72%. The advantage of the use of carbon capture towards climate change mitigation is reduced mainly as a result of an increase in CH4 emissions, significant in the coal-mining stage, an effect which is only taken into account when a LCA is performed.
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| 7 |
ID:
092824
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article evaluates the impact of pricing CO2 emissions over the configuration of new refinery complexes in their conceptual phase. Two refineries' schemes were simulated through a linear programming optimization model in order to compare the optimum configuration obtained before and after the input of different CO2 prices. The cases analyzed represent refining projects to be located in Brazil, a growing market for fuels and petrochemical feedstocks, as well as an oil producing country with rising crude exports. After 2012, emerging countries, such as Brazil, may adopt carbon emission reduction targets. Therefore, it is worth analyzing the impact of pricing CO2 emissions in these countries, where the majority of new refining projects will be located. Our findings indicate that the initial refinery configurations proposed are quite rigid technologically for CO2 prices up to US$ 100/t CO2. For CO2 prices higher than US$ 100/t CO2, refineries reduced their emissions by increasing the consumption of natural gas used to produce hydrogen, and through changes in the original configurations towards less-energy consuming process units. Promising technological advances, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), can also diminish the rigidity of the model and facilitate actions to curb carbon emissions.
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| 8 |
ID:
126809
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A large share of Brazil's current investments is concentrated in the development of petroleum resources in new frontiers. Perspectives for large offshore pre-salt fields are particularly good. However, challenges are also huge. On one hand, pre-salt resources development will draw vast amounts of economic and human resources and pose significant macroeconomic risks. On the other hand, the petroleum industry can generate multiplicative effects into the country's economy and, even more importantly, generate rents that can be diverted towards the promotion of renewable energy sources. This paper simulates the rent generation of Brazil's petroleum development up to 2030 according to: the country's current fiscal regime, projections of petroleum supply and a probability analysis of Brent price evolution, and assesses how these economic resources, if properly allocated, can pave the way for an increased use of renewables in Brazil. Findings show that an ambitious energy innovation program based on a target-oriented agency plus a program for solar development would cost less than half the minimum average annual petroleum rent free for investing in renewables between 2013 and 2030. The remaining budget could improve the security of ethanol fuel supply, by avoiding the negative impacts of sugar prices spikes on Brazil's ethanol production.
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| 9 |
ID:
105737
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, energy security issues and competition for land use are putting pressure on governments and policymakers. However, these three subjects are not usually treated in integrated form. This paper shows that the implementation of energy efficiency policies combined with policies to encourage use of biofuels can help reduce greenhouse gases emissions while easing land use competition from sugarcane ethanol in Brazil. By adapting the ADVISOR (Advanced Vehicle Simulator) software to evaluate vehicle efficiency, and by estimating the Brazilian light-duty vehicle market share based on historical data, this paper estimates the possible levels of GHG emissions and area planted with sugarcane in 2030 in the country. The findings indicate that reductions from 8% to 20% in greenhouse gas emissions and 0.9-1.8 million ha in sugarcane planted area are possible with no significant technological breakthroughs over the horizon to 2030 in comparison with a baseline scenario.
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| 10 |
ID:
125489
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Unconventional oil resources are needed to complement petroleum supply in the next decades. However, given the restrictions that pertain to the production of these resources, this article evaluates the availability of Venezuelan unconventional oil for helping meet the future worldwide petroleum demand. Venezuela has the world's second-largest oil reserves, but the majority of it is unconventional extra-heavy oil from the Orinoco Oil Belt. The perspective of Venezuelan production, the ways in which PDVSA, the state oil company, will raise funds for planned investments and the future oil price predictions are used to assess Venezuela's ability to serve as a source of unconventional oil in the coming years. Findings indicate that Venezuelan crude oil will be increasingly able to provide part of the marginal petroleum supply at a level predicted in global scenarios but short of that predicted by the country's government. Operational difficulties and the effort to raise financial resources for the oil production in the Belt require urgency in overcoming difficulties. As conventional production in Venezuela will stabilise in the coming years and the country is dependent on oil production, Venezuela will rely on extra-heavy oil extraction to ensure increased oil production and the stabilisation of internal accounts.
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