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ID:
098702
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Stabilising the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere at a level of 450 ppm in order to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C requires an ambitious climate policy. This study analyses the role of different technologies in the EU-27 with regard to efficiency improvements, fuel switching and energy saving measures under such a climate policy target. The analysis is carried out using the regionalised Pan-European TIMES energy system model, a technology oriented, linear optimisation model. Thereby limited resources and import potentials of various energy carriers, competition among different sectors and the country-specific differences in energy demand are taken into account. As a result, it turns out that the structure of energy use inside the EU-27 is much stronger, influenced by political targets and positions regarding climate protection, energy security and the use of nuclear energy than by available technologies. In the case of climate protection polices and limited use of nuclear energy, the most important measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases are an increased use of renewables, carbon capture and storage, fuel switching and the intensified application of electricity in the end use sectors. Efficiency improvements play an additional role when security of supply is taken into account.
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| 2 |
ID:
128375
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Germany produces more steel than any other European country (42.7 Mt steel in 2012). The steel production accounts for 22% of Germany's final industrial energy consumption. We assessed the potential of 32 identified energy conservation measures by deriving fuel, electricity and CO2 conservation cost curves. We developed a methodology which respects the current efficiency of individual plants and two different system boundaries: a process boundary for benchmarking measures and a facility boundary for calculating the total energy conservation potential. With moderate electricity and carbon price developments for the investigation period 2013-2035, the cost-effective conservation potentials are estimated to be 11.7% for fuel, 2.2% for electricity and 12.2% for fuel and process-related CO2 emissions compared to the industry's final energy use and CO2 emissions in 2012. For the sensitivity analysis, we varied electricity and carbon prices and our results showed that adopting cost-effective energy conservation measures can compensate for rising energy prices but the extent differs between the production routes. While the EAF route could compensate up to 50% higher electricity prices, the options for the BF/BOF route to reduce the fossil fuel consumption are limited. Thus, the energy-related production costs of the BF/BOF route increased in average by 6-13% between 2013 and 2035.
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| 3 |
ID:
092833
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The diffusion of promising energy technologies in the market depends on their future energy production-cost development. When analyzing these technologies in an integrated assessment model using endogenous technological learning, the uncertainty in the assumed learning rates (LRs) plays a crucial role in the production-cost development and model outcomes. This study examines the uncertainty in LRs of some energy technologies under endogenous global learning implementation and presents a floor-cost modeling procedure to systematically regulate the uncertainty in LRs of energy technologies. The article narrates the difficulties of data assimilation, as compatible with mixed integer programming segmentations, and comprehensively presents the causes of uncertainty in LRs. This work is executed using a multi-regional and long-horizon energy system model based on "TIMES" framework. All regions receive an economic advantage to learn in a common domain, and resource-ample regions obtain a marginal advantage for better exploitation of the learning technologies, due to a lower supply-side fuel-cost development. The lowest learning investment associated with the maximum LR mobilizes more deployment of the learning technologies. The uncertainty in LRs has an impact on the diffusion of energy technologies tested, and therefore this study scrutinizes the role of policy support for some of the technologies investigated.
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