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| 1 |
ID:
092839
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2009.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no "silver bullet" strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.
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| 2 |
ID:
162268
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| Summary/Abstract |
The main concept of this paper is derived from the Government of Taiwan's Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act (GGRMA), which mandates that greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 should be reduced to half of the rate of greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. To reach this carbon emission goal by 2050, this paper examines three potential policy options (each accompanied with four illustrative scenarios). The results show that: (1) it is impossible to reach the goals of the GGRMA solely through the use of carbon allowance allocations and the use of alternative fuels if the use of vehicles is allowed to grow. (2) By keeping the increase in the use of vehicles to zero, by encouraging a use of PHEVs, and by implementing a carbon allowance allocation, it will be possible to reach the government's 2050 carbon emissions goals. (3) If the use of vehicles can actually be reduced, it will be possible to achieve carbon emissions which are lower than the 2050 targets by 1.30–5.18%. The use of alternative fuels proves to be a reliable way to decrease carbon emission. Carbon emissions could also be lowered by encouraging the use of public transportation.
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| 3 |
ID:
116956
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Governments have attempted to advance alternative fuels (AFs) in the on-road transportation sector with the goal of addressing multiple environmental, energy security, economic growth, and technology transition objectives. However there is little agreement, at all governmental levels, on how to prioritize goals and how to measure progress towards goals. Literature suggests that a consistent, aligned, and prioritized approach will increase the effectiveness of deployment efforts. While literature states that goal alignment and prioritization should occur, there are few studies suggesting how to measure the alignment of deployment programs. This paper presents a methodology for measuring goal alignment by applying the theories of goal ambiguity. It then demonstrates this methodology within the context of fuel- and project-neutral (wide-scope) grant programs directed toward AF deployment. This paper analyzes forty-seven (47) wide-scope federal, state, and regional grant programs in the United States, active between 2006 and 2011. On the whole, governments most use deployment grant programs to address environmental concerns and are highly aligned in doing so between agency levels. In contrast, there is much less consensus (and therefore goal alignment) on whether or how governments should address other priorities such as energy security, economic growth, and technology transition.
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| 4 |
ID:
097202
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.
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