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ID: 109441

Long term forecasting of natural gas production / Mohr, S H; Evans, G M

Mohr, S H	Journal Article
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Publication

2011.

Summary/Abstract

Natural gas is an important energy source for power generation, a chemical feedstock and residential usage. It is important to analyse the future production of conventional and unconventional natural gas. Analysis of the literature determined conventional URR estimates of 10,700-18,300 EJ, and the unconventional gas URR estimates were determined to be 4250-11,000 EJ. Six scenarios were assumed, with three static where demand and supply do not interact and three dynamic where it does. The projections indicate that world natural gas production will peak between 2025 and 2066 at 140-217 EJ/y (133-206 tcf/y). Natural gas resources are more abundant than some of the literature indicates.

Key Words

Natural Gas Production ; Natural Gas URR ; Peak Natural Gas

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ID: 093497

Long term prediction of unconventional oil production / Mohr, S H; Evans, G M

Mohr, S H	Journal Article
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Publication

2010.

Summary/Abstract

Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

Key Words

Supply ; Unconventional Oil ; Modeling

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