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| 1 |
ID:
101459
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| 2 |
ID:
093552
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| 3 |
ID:
149968
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the impact of the North American shale gas revolution on price movement regimes in the North American and European gas markets, using the Markov regime-switching model. It then measures price spreads between oil and gas from 1998 to 2015 to identify the impact of the revolution on the relationship between oil and regional gas prices. The results show that the typical movement regime of Henry Hub prices changes from 'slightly upward' to 'sharply downward'. In addition, the clear seasonal effect of Henry Hub prices has disappeared after the shale gas revolution. The typical movement of national balancing point (NBP) prices has changed gradually from a 'sharply upward' regime to the alternative regimes between 'sharply downward' and 'slightly upward', tending to follow oil prices. This indicates that the shale gas revolution has had little impact on NBP price movement. Meanwhile, Henry Hub prices have decoupled from WTI prices, while NBP and Brent prices have continued to exhibit a long-term equilibrium level around which they have swung in the short time-frame since the shale gas revolution. Pertinent energy policy makers and energy market participants should pay attention to these changes and adjust their trade, production and investment strategies accordingly.
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| 4 |
ID:
101109
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| 5 |
ID:
166952
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| Summary/Abstract |
The rise of the shale gas industry and the need for clean, low-carbon energy transformation in China has meant that the relationship between domestic and foreign natural gas markets has become closer. Therefore, identifying the changing relationships between the major global natural gas markets and China's natural gas market has important practical value for the current Chinese domestic natural gas pricing system. This paper used the DCC-GARCH-NARDL-ARDL-ECM as the analytical framework to study these relationships, from which it was found that there was no unified global natural gas market and that China's natural gas market was not yet aligned with this market. It was shown that there was no significant asymmetry in the impact of international gas prices on China's gas prices as no flexible adjustment measures were found in China's imported natural gas pricing mechanism. Moreover, while international natural gas prices were found to have a significant impact on China's natural gas prices over the long term, there were obvious regional differences over the short term. Accordingly, new pricing policies should be designed to promote market-oriented natural gas pricing reforms in acknowledging features such as asymmetry, the difference between imported gas sources and the periodicity of price adjustment.
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| 6 |
ID:
111336
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
With Gazprom gaining prominence as the major supplier of natural gas in the European Union, the European gas market becomes more politicized. We assume that Gazprom's interest as a state monopolist is not only to maximize profit, but also to seek market power, presumably because this contributes to the geopolitical power of Russia at large. We introduce a modeling tool, so-called strategic delegation games, to analyze the implications of Gazprom's operation in the EU. By way of illustration, we model the case where Gazprom competes against two profit-maximizing rivals: Algerian Sonatrach and Norwegian Statoil. We prove that if Gazprom serves any of a comprehensive type of nonprofit objectives, the outcome is beneficial for the EU's consumers, as Gazprom's behavior shifts volumes up and brings prices down.
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| 7 |
ID:
177093
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| Summary/Abstract |
Developing the abundant shale gas in China is a potential means to address the country’s challenges in air pollution and carbon emissions. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the production potential of the most promising shale gas play—the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation (WL) in China. We use a Difference-Index analogy method and well-level U.S. shale gas drilling data to estimate the production potential and use a scenario simulation method to propose optimal drilling plans. The results show that the Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation has the potential to produce 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year (Bcm/yr), which is 60% of the gas imported into China in 2018. With technology improvement and drilling of more wells, the target of 80–100 Bcm/yr set by the government can be achieved solely by extraction from WL. We find that shale gas drilling is profitable with a well-head price of 1.5 Chinese Yuan per cubic meter. The study indicates that a shale gas boom in China is possible, depending on a more competitive market both upstream and downstream. The successful development of shale gas will change the country’s energy mix to become cleaner and lower-carbon.
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