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| 1 |
ID:
111349
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Over the next decade, large energy investments are required in the UK to meet growing energy service demands and legally binding emission targets under a pioneering policy agenda. These are necessary despite deep mid-term (2025-2030) uncertainties over which national policy makers have little control. We investigate the effect of two critical mid-term uncertainties on optimal near-term investment decisions using a two-stage stochastic energy system model.
The results show that where future fossil fuel prices are uncertain: (i) the near term hedging strategy to 2030 differs from any one deterministic fuel price scenario and is structurally dissimilar to a simple 'average' of the deterministic scenarios, and (ii) multiple recourse strategies from 2030 are perturbed by path dependencies caused by hedging investments. Evaluating the uncertainty under a decarbonisation agenda shows that fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive at around £20 billion. The addition of novel mitigation options reduces the value of fossil fuel price uncertainty to £11 billion. Uncertain biomass import availability shows a much lower value of uncertainty at £300 million.
This paper reveals the complex relationship between the flexibility of the energy system and mitigating the costs of uncertainty due to the path-dependencies caused by the long-life times of both infrastructures and generation technologies.
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| 2 |
ID:
162960
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| Summary/Abstract |
Taiwan aims to replace all nuclear power with renewable energy by 2025, and thus how much electricity from such sources can actually sustain or improve its energy structure must be thoroughly evaluated. This study is designed to explore the Taiwan's bioenergy potential in the face of climate change and climate-induced crop yield change. Multiple bioenergy technologies and energy crops and residuals are embedded in a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model to discover their efficiency under changes in crop yields and market conditions. The results show that up to 2.26% of total electricity demand can be fulfilled with pyrolysis-based electricity and more than 3.1 million tons of emission reduction can be achieved. Climate-induced crop yield change, if it is small, shall not have considerable influences on bioenergy technology selection and bioenergy output, but land use may be altered considerably with an additional $NT 2.88 billion dollars in government expenditures on support programs.
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| 3 |
ID:
029311
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| Publication |
New York, Academic Press, 1972.
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| Description |
ix, 127p.Hardbound
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| Series |
Probability and mathematical statistics: a series of monographs and textbooks
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| Standard Number |
0127101500
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Copies: C:1/I:0,R:0,Q:0
Circulation
| Accession# | Call# | Current Location | Status | Policy | Location |
| 010241 | 519.7/VAJ 010241 | Main | On Shelf | General | |
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| 4 |
ID:
117269
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The paper assesses bidding strategies for a wind power producer in the Netherlands. To this end, a three-stage stochastic optimization framework is used, maximizing wind power producer's profit using the day-ahead and cross-border intraday market, taking into account available interconnection capacity. Results show that the wind power producer can increase its profits by trading on the intraday market and - under certain imbalance prices - by intentionally creating imbalances. It has been considered uncertainties about prices, power forecast and interconnection capacity at the day-ahead and intraday timeframes.
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