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ID:
094206
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Recent research has shown that once CO2 has been emitted to the atmosphere, it will take centuries for natural removal. Clearly, the longer we delay deep reductions in CO2, the greater the risk that total greenhouse gas emissions will exceed prudent limits for avoiding dangerous anthropogenic change. We evaluate the three possible technical approaches for climate change mitigation: emission reduction methods, post-emission draw down of CO2 from the atmosphere, and geoengineering. We find that the first two approaches are unlikely to deliver the timely reductions in CO2 needed, while geoengineering methods either deliver too little or are too risky. Given the deep uncertainties in both future climate prediction and energy availability, it seems safest to actively plan for a much lower energy future. We propose a general 'shrink and share' approach to reductions in both fossil-fuel use and carbon emissions, with basic human needs satisfaction replacing economic growth as the focus for economic activity. Only with deep cuts in energy and carbon can we avoid burdening future generations with the high energy costs of air capture.
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| 2 |
ID:
096720
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.
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| 3 |
ID:
097513
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.
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