| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
094213
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2010.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20-25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 °C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008-2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65-75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85-95 MW in 2030.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
ID:
169869
|
|
|
|
|
| Summary/Abstract |
Climatic zoning has a direct impact on building energy efficiency policies. Currently, most countries adopt simplified weather parameters to define their climatic zoning, with the degree-day method being the most widely used. This widespread use of degree-days has been substantially influenced by the adoption of this indicator by ASHRAE on its climatic zoning, which is a core element for the prescription of requirements for buildings based on their location. However, there is no scientific evidence regarding the agreement between building energy performance and the ASHRAE climatic zones. The objective here was to quantify the mismatch between buildings’ energy performance in each given location and the expected energy performance in the climatic zone they are placed. The study uses a performance-based assessment method relying on building energy simulation and GIS. Climatic zoning performance indicators were calculated based on the energy demand of 52 archetype buildings of the U.S. building stock complying with the ASHRAE Standard 90.1–2013. Results suggest that the stipulated climatic zone misclassifies 10% of the area evaluated, potentially misclassifying highly populated urban areas. These misclassifications have direct impact on the building energy efficiency policies of a given location, which may not be the most adequate for its climate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|