| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
101411
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
This paper is to develop a modified Tobin's q evaluation method which successfully combines the evaluation criteria of the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. This study provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria. That is, it clearly provides decision-makers with a reference in choosing enter or exit strategies, such as quantitative indicators references. The proposed model introduces two variables stochastic process in continuous time and explores the impact of the occurrence of unexpected events on the project value, so that, it can more authentically response to the project value. The studied issue deals with the firms that have not established energy-saving equipment yet. It attempts to figure out the optimal timing to adopt an energy-saving investment project when it is beneficial and the optimal timing to terminate it when the continuous operation of that business is unprofitable. The future discounted benefit-cost ratio, Q, follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. Except for the evaluation of energy-saving equipment investment project, the proposed model can be applied to other related project evaluation issues, such as energy-saving, CO2 emission reduction, or general investment projects.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
ID:
109623
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
ID:
094223
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2010.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|