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| 1 |
ID:
136211
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| Summary/Abstract |
We investigate the impacts that oil price shocks have on residential consumption in China. While it is well understood that oil prices affect consumption in a multitude of ways, the timing and directness of these effects on specific consumption categories is not clear. We demonstrate that the most immediate and direct effect passes through transportation consumption, as might be expected. But we also show that significant effects pass through consumption in other sectors—including “food and clothes”, “medical expenditure”, and other general “living expenditure”—with less immediacy. Given the results, particularly observed asymmetries with respect to rises and falls in international oil prices, we discuss some implications for future adjustments to domestic price policies, in particular the case for removal of domestic price regulation.
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| 2 |
ID:
111443
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper identifies the main driving force behind oil price shocks in 1970-2006 by applying a simple identification strategy of supply-driven and demand-driven price shocks. The identification hypothesis states that supply-driven oil price shocks have a negative impact on the macroeconomic activity of countries, which are net consumers of oil while demand-driven oil price shocks do not have negative effects. In order to identify global demand-driven shocks, a weighted aggregate GDP series of countries, which are net consumers of oil, is constructed over 1970-2006. The key result is that the main driving force behind oil price shocks has changed from supply-driven shocks in 1970-1992 to demand-driven shocks in 1992-2006.
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| 3 |
ID:
094290
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.
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