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| 1 |
ID:
094300
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Accurate short-term natural gas (NG) demand estimation and forecasting is vital for policy and decision-making process in energy sector. Moreover, conventional methods may not provide accurate results. This paper presents an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of NG demand. Standard input variables are used which are day of the week, demand of the same day in previous year, demand of a day before and demand of 2 days before. The proposed ANFIS approach is equipped with pre-processing and post-processing concepts. Moreover, input data are pre-processed (scaled) and finally output data are post-processed (returned to its original scale). The superiority and applicability of the ANFIS approach is shown for Iranian NG consumption from 22/12/2007 to 30/6/2008. Results show that ANFIS provides more accurate results than artificial neural network (ANN) and conventional time series approach. The results of this study provide policy makers with an appropriate tool to make more accurate predictions on future short-term NG demand. This is because the proposed approach is capable of handling non-linearity, complexity as well as uncertainty that may exist in actual data sets due to erratic responses and measurement errors.
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| 2 |
ID:
094298
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade. Besides directly quantifying the flow of CO2 emissions between the two countries by using a traditional input-output (IO) model, this study also estimates the effect of bilateral trade to CO2 emissions by scenario analysis. The time series of quantifications indicate that CO2 emissions embodied in exported goods from Japan to China increased overall from 1990 to 2000. The exported CO2 emissions from China to Japan greatly increased in the first half of the 1990s. However, by 2000, the amount of emissions had reduced from 1995 levels. Regardless, there was a net export of CO2 emissions from China to Japan during 1990-2000. The scenario comparison shows that the bilateral trade has helped the reduction of CO2 emissions. On average, the Chinese economy was confirmed to be much more carbon-intensive than Japan. The regression analysis shows a significant but not perfect correlation between the carbon intensities at the sector level of the two countries. In terms of CO2 emission reduction opportunities, most sectors of Chinese industry could benefit from learning Japanese technologies that produce lower carbon intensities.
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| 3 |
ID:
094231
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Even as the US debates an economy-wide CO2 cap-and-trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. Transportation alone consumes the majority of the US's imported oil and produces a third of total US Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines different sector-specific policy scenarios for reducing GHG emissions and oil consumption in the US transportation sector under economy-wide CO2 prices. The 2009 version of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a general equilibrium model of US energy markets, enables quantitative estimates of the impact of economy-wide CO2 prices and various transportation-specific policy options. We analyze fuel taxes, continued increases in fuel economy standards, and purchase tax credits for new vehicle purchases, as well as the impacts of combining these policies. All policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the Obama administration's goal of reducing GHG emissions 14% below 2005 levels by 2020. Purchase tax credits are expensive and ineffective at reducing emissions, while the largest reductions in GHG emissions result from increasing the cost of driving, thereby damping growth in vehicle miles traveled.
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| 4 |
ID:
094220
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the European policy debate, tradable green certificates (TGC) have been suggested to be a superior regulatory framework for promoting the diffusion of renewable electricity technologies. The purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of the Swedish TGC system, contributing to the European debate on the suitability of different types of frameworks. The expectations of the TGC system were that it would: (a) be effective in terms of increasing the supply of "green" electricity; (b) do this in a cost effective manner (from both a social and a consumer perspective); (c) generate an equitable distribution of costs and benefits and (d) drive technical change. So far, it has performed adequately in terms of effectiveness and social cost effectiveness. However, consumer costs have been substantially higher than expected, very large rents are generated and, at best, it contributes marginally to technical change. Thus, a TGC framework should be selected if the overriding concern is to minimize short term social costs of reaching a certain goal with a high degree of predictability. However, it cannot be expected to also drive technical change, keep consumer costs down and be equitable. Such trade-offs need to be revealed and not obscured by analysts.
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| 5 |
ID:
094230
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Presently, less than a handful of papers have analysed the attitude towards offshore wind farms in a population living in an area with offshore wind farms. This leaves the experience-based attitude and demographic relations analysis relatively unexplored. The present studies aims at covering some of that seemingly uncharted territory by analysing attitudes from a sample of more than 1000 respondents. Applying an Ordered Probit Model, the results show general positive attitudes towards offshore wind farms and that the attitude formation seems to be a function of the gender, income, level of education, visit frequency and type of visit to the beach and the view to on-land turbines from the residence. Interestingly and perhaps the most interesting results, the observed relations between demographics and attitude are found to be dependent on the type and frequency of usage of the beach among the respondents. Attitudes towards offshore wind farms and demographic associations are thus found to be more evident in the case that respondents do use not the beach for walking on a relatively frequent basis but much weaker if the respondent use the beach on a frequent basis. However, these results are sensitive to the type of beach usage. This suggests that attitude formation towards offshore wind farms appear to be dependent on a combination of the type and frequency of use of the beach. To the author's knowledge these findings are novel, as such relation has not yet been identified in the literature. As such, the results shed light on a new angle in both the literature focusing on the opposition formation towards wind power projects in general and offshore wind farms in particular.
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| 6 |
ID:
094295
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The need for biofuels, particularly liquid ones like ethanol and biodiesel, has been felt by most of the countries and their governments have been trying to promote these fuels. Following in line with global trend, India declared its biofuel policy in which biodiesel, primarily from jatropha, would meet 20% of the diesel demand beginning with 2011-2012. In spite of the efforts made by the state, production of biodiesel, however, has not picked up at all. Doubt arises as to whether the country will be able to meet the target. It is felt that the government policy, particularly regarding land utilization, organizing cultivation of jatropha and pricing of jatropha seeds, needs to be more clear. This paper attempts to make an assessment of the state of India's biofuel programme and to identify the hurdles that policy-maker need to overcome to achieve the goal.
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| 7 |
ID:
094299
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The aim of this article is to analyze the potential for synergies between climate policies and development in a case study on India focusing on the power sector sub-optimalities. To do so, we use Imaclim-R, a dynamic recursive energy-economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. The analysis suggests (i) global carbon pricing induces prohibitive macroeconomic costs for the Indian economy, even in the case of significant financial transfers associated with a global cap-and-trade system and a 'Contraction and Convergence in 2100' allocation scheme and (ii) the most cost efficient climate policies are not uniform carbon pricing only. The implementation of domestic policies suited to the national context, for instance targeting sub-optimalities in the power sector for India, allows reducing significantly the macroeconomic costs induced by international mitigation policies.
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| 8 |
ID:
094238
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for 25 OECD countries within a multivariate panel framework over period 1980-2005. The Larsson et al. (2001) panel cointegration test indicates there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. The respective coefficients for real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force are positive and statistically significant whereas the coefficient for coal consumption is negative and statistically significant. The results of the panel vector error correction model reveal bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run; however, the bidirectional causality in the short-run is negative.
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| 9 |
ID:
094225
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Replacing incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescents (CFLs) has traditionally been seen as a cost effective means of promoting energy conservation. Recently, however, the magnitude of energy savings associated with CFLs has been called into question. Specifically, recent findings suggest an "interactive effect" associated with the replacement of incandescent light bulbs with CFLs in the residential sector. In this scenario, the reduced wattage of CFLs, relative to incandescent bulbs, generates less heat, which in turn, requires additional natural gas usage during the heating season. Engineering studies suggest the magnitude of the effect is significant in energy terms, which implies that the energy savings associated with CFLs may be significantly overstated. In this paper, we use billing analysis to test for the presence of interactive effects. Our analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset that includes monthly household electricity and natural gas usage, the number of CFL bulbs installed, the installation date, and a set of household characteristics. Our results suggest that CFLs do indeed save electricity. However, we do not find any support for the hypothesis that CFLs cause increased usage of natural gas.
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| 10 |
ID:
094305
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The purpose of this paper is to analyze Swedish households' willingness to increase their daily efforts to save electricity. The analysis builds on a broad theoretical framework, which embraces both economic and norm-based motivations in explaining household behavior. The paper pays particular attention to the role of information about the availability of different behavioral changes that can be undertaken at the household level. The empirical results are based on a postal survey that was sent out to 1200 Swedish households, and the econometric analysis is carried out within a so-called ordered probit framework. Our results indicate that costs, environmental attitudes and social interactions are all important determinants of electricity saving activities within Swedish households. We tested the hypothesis that information about available savings measures that is presented in a more concrete and specific way is more likely to affect (stated) behavior than is more general information, and the data collected support this notion. The paper ends by discussing some implications of these results for the design of future informative policy measures in the energy-efficiency field.
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| 11 |
ID:
094240
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The purpose of this paper is to examine the lessons from the recent history of telecoms deregulation for electricity (and by implication heat) network regulation. We do this in the context of Ofgem's RPI-X@20 Review of energy regulation in the UK, which considers whether RPI-X-based price regulation is fit for purpose after over 20 years of operation in energy networks. We examine the deregulation of fixed line telecoms in the UK and the lessons which it seems to suggest. We then apply the lessons to electricity networks in the context of a possible increase in distributed generation directly connected to local distribution networks. We conclude that there is the possibility of more parallels over time and suggest several implications of this for the regulation of electricity and heat networks.
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| 12 |
ID:
094233
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Energy metrics is the development of a whole new theoretical framework for the conception and measurement of energy and economic system performances, energy efficiency and productivity improvements with important political economy implications consistent with the best use of all natural and economic resources. The purpose of this research is to present some vital energy indicators based on magnitude and scale of energy weakness, GDP per barrel of oil that is an indicator of energy productivity and barrels (of oil) per capita that is an indicator of energy efficiency. Energy metrics can support the monitoring of energy and economic system performances in order to design effective energy strategy and political economy interventions focused on the "competitive advantage" increase of countries in modern economies.
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| 13 |
ID:
094218
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A framework for analyzing the impact on the expected cost of oil disruption by energy policies in EU-25 is developed. The framework takes into account how energy policies affect the oil market, the expected oil price increase, and the disruption costs. OPEC's strategic behavior is modelled as a dominant firm, and the model includes price interdependence between different energy commodities to better estimate the cost of an oil disruption. It is found that substituting pellets for oil in households and using imported sugar cane ethanol are cost-efficient policies if greenhouse gas benefits are included. Domestically produced wheat ethanol is not found to be cost-efficient even if both the expected cost of oil disruption and greenhouse gas benefits are included, the same also holds for hybrid vehicles. The gross expected economic gain of the policies is found to be between 9 and 22 €/bbl oil replaced.
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| 14 |
ID:
094293
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A number of Member States of the European Union (EU) have introduced market-based policy portfolios based on quantified energy savings obligations on energy distributors or suppliers, possibly coupled with certification of project-based energy savings (via white certificates), and the option to trade the certificates or obligations. The paper provides an up-to-date review and analysis of results to date of white certificate schemes in the EU.
In the EU supplier obligations and white certificate schemes have delivered larger savings than originally expected with obliged companies exceeding targets and, in some cases, at cost below what policy makers have anticipated. Supplier obligations foster the uptake of standardised energy efficiency actions often targeting smaller energy users (residential sector), lowering the transaction costs and contributing to market transformation. The role of certificate trading is more ambiguous. Trading can bring benefits where the target is set sufficiently high with respect to the energy-saving potential in the sectors covered. Theoretically trading may be better suited for broader systems with comprehensive coverage, but even in smaller schemes trading may reduce the transaction costs of compliance for obliged actors without sufficient expertise on end-use energy efficiency. Yet, trading increases the administrative cost ratio of energy-saving obligations.
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| 15 |
ID:
094214
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| 16 |
ID:
094302
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Electricity trade across regions is often considered welfare enhancing. We show in this paper that this should be reconsidered if environmental externalities are taken into account. We consider two cases where trade is beneficial, before accounting for environmental damages: first, when two regions with the same technology display some demand heterogeneity; second when one region endowed with hydropower arbitrages with its "thermal" neighbor. Our results show that under reasonable demand and supply elasticities, trade comes with an additional environmental cost. This calls for integrating environmental externalities into market reforms when redesigning the electricity sector. Two North American applications illustrate our results: trade between Pennsylvania and New York, and trade between hydro-rich Quebec and New York.
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| 17 |
ID:
094232
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the valuation of a replacement project of nuclear power plants under the deregulated electricity market. The replacement project consists of two components: the decision to decommission an existing plant and the decision to construct a new plant. In the replacement project, the decommissioning decision should be made considering not only the profitability of the existing plant but also the profitability and costs of the construction of the new plant. Real options theory is used to determine the optimal timing of the decommissioning and construction. In order to examine the effect of decommissioning time and decision making one, we consider a time-lag for these decision making times. We show the dependence of the replacement project value on uncertainty and time-lag.
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| 18 |
ID:
094306
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Choosing a desired policy for divestiture of dominant firms' generation assets has been a challenging task and open question for regulatory authority. To deal with this problem, in this paper, an analytical method and agent-based computational economics (ACE) approach are used for ex-ante analysis of divestiture policy in reducing market power. The analytical method is applied to solve a designed concentration boundary problem, even for situations where the cost data of generators are unknown. The concentration boundary problem is the problem of minimizing or maximizing market concentration subject to operation constraints of the electricity market. It is proved here that the market concentration corresponding to operation condition is certainly viable in an interval calculated by the analytical method. For situations where the cost function of generators is available, the ACE is used to model the electricity market. In ACE, each power producer's profit-maximization problem is solved by the computational approach of Q-learning. The power producer using the Q-learning method learns from past experiences to implicitly identify the market power, and find desired response in competing with the rivals. Both methods are applied in a multi-area power system and effects of different divestiture policies on market behavior are analyzed.
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| 19 |
ID:
094297
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The paper presents a proposed market monitoring procedure that takes into account the special features of an electricity market dominated by hydropower. Specifically, we present a method to assess water values and a set of indicators that can be used to screen the market for suspicious price formation. We then use the suggested monitoring procedure to evaluate actual price formation in the Nordic Electricity Market during the (hydrological) year 2002/2003 when precipitation failed and spot prices at the electricity exchange Nord Pool hit an all-time high.
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| 20 |
ID:
094237
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Energy diversification and the use of renewable energy sources are key points in the European energy strategy. Biofuels are the most popular renewable resource option for the transport sector, and the European Union has established objectives that the Member States must adopt and implement. However, biofuel production at such a scale requires a considerable amount of water resources, and this water-energy nexus is rarely taken into account. This paper shows the strong nexus between water and energy in biofuel production and estimates the virtual water (VW) content and the water footprint (WF) from the raw material production that will be needed to reach the Spanish targets for biofuel consumption by 2010. The results show how the impact of such targets on the global and local water situation could be reduced through virtual water imports and, at the same time, how these imports could increase Spain's water and energy dependence. Hence, in order to manage water from an integral perspective of the territory, the inclusion of biofuel consumption objectives should go hand in hand with measures to reduce the demand of energy in the transport sector.
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