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| 1 |
ID:
128308
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article empirically analyses whether agricultural growth performance determines the growth trajectory of the economy of an Indian state, namely Madhya Pradesh. Long-term growth trends of nearly three decades (1981-2011) in Madhya Pradesh show that fluctuations in agricultural growth and Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) clearly coincide and have a considerable impact on the overall growth of the state's economy. In examining this, the agricultural terms of trade are first introduced to capture the relative price responsiveness of agricultural supply in the state. Structural breaks, cointegration and an error correction mechanism are used to explore the long-term relationship between terms of trade, agricultural growth and GSDP growth. Findings show that agricultural fluctuations explain nearly half of fluctuations in the growth of the state economy while agricultural supply remains responsive to price and economic incentives. The analysis suggests that agricultural growth performance remains central to achieving any higher growth trajectory for the state.
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| 2 |
ID:
096227
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal. However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the unrelenting specialization in downmarket products and the deteriorating terms of trade. These weaknesses have helped its partners to adjust to the rise of this new trade power. In the past decade, China's economy has faced the adverse effects of an export-led growth and the global crisis has revealed its vulnerability. China is now forced to rebalance its economy. This will imply major changes in foreign trade, in favor of ordinary trade and away from processing. In the foreseeable future, China is unlikely to become the driver of international demand but will remain the engine of Asian economic integration.
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| 3 |
ID:
094381
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study examines China's growth patterns through its exports, foreign capital inflows, balance of payments and terms of trade, and projects them into a comparative framework. It brings together, for the first time, various sources of historical data from the first globalisation era, relating to four of the most industrialised economies - the UK, the US, Germany and Japan. By comparison, it finds that China's trade expansion has no doubt exceeded that of any of the industrialised economies in the first globalisation era; however, this trade boom is a characteristic of post-war globalisation. Large capital inflows, surplus in both current and capital accounts, and the negative correlation between terms of trade and exports are not unique Chinese phenomena in the history of globalisation. However, China's trade liberalisation, industrialisation policy, FDI strategy and cautious foreign exchange policy have all contributed to the exploitation of the positive effects of globalisation.
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