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| 1 |
ID:
094828
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Stochastic simulation of the direct economic costs of oil dependence in an uncertain future is proposed as a useful metric of oil dependence. The market failure from which these costs arise is imperfect competition in the world oil market, chiefly as a consequence of the use of market power by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel. Oil dependence costs can be substantial. It is estimated that oil dependence costs to the US economy in 2008 will exceed $500 billion. Other costs, such as military expenditures or foreign policy constraints are deemed to be largely derivative of the actual or potential economic costs of oil dependence. The use of quantifiable economic costs as a security metric leads to a measurable definition of oil independence, or oil security, which can be used to test the ability of specific policies to achieve oil independence in an uncertain future.
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| 2 |
ID:
111311
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
U.S. national time series data on vehicle travel by passenger cars and light trucks covering the period 1966-2007 are used to test for the existence, size and stability of the rebound effect for motor vehicle fuel efficiency on vehicle travel. The data show a statistically significant effect of gasoline price on vehicle travel but do not support the existence of a direct impact of fuel efficiency on vehicle travel. Additional tests indicate that fuel price effects have not been constant over time, although the hypothesis of symmetry with respect to price increases and decreases is not rejected. Small and Van Dender (2007) model of a declining rebound effect with income is tested and similar results are obtained.
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| 3 |
ID:
125683
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Prospect theory holds that human beings faced with a risky bet will tend to value potential losses about twice as much as potential gains. Previous research has demonstrated that prospect theory could be sufficient to explain an energy paradox in the market for automotive fuel economy. This paper analyzes data from questions added to four commercial, multi-client surveys of 1000 U.S. households each in 2004, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Households were asked about willingness to pay for future fuel savings as well as the annual fuel savings necessary to justify a given upfront payment. Payback periods inferred from household responses are generally consistent over time and across different formulations of questions. Mean calculated payback periods are about 3 years, but there is substantial dispersion among individual responses. The calculated payback periods do not appear to be correlated with the attributes of respondents. Respondents were able to quantitatively describe their uncertainty about both vehicle fuel economy and future fuel prices. Simulation of loss averse behavior based on respondents' stated uncertainty illustrates how loss aversion could lead consumers to substantially undervalue future fuel savings relative to their expected value.
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| 4 |
ID:
176789
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| Summary/Abstract |
Since 1975, the fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. has almost doubled. Fuel economy improvements on laboratory tests gradually became real improvements on the road as newer, more efficient vehicles replaced older less efficient ones. Fleet-wide fuel economy gains produced large fuel savings. In this paper, we show that fuel economy gains measured on laboratory test cycles, adjusted for on-road conditions and weighted by the distribution of vehicles by age and their relative use, closely match estimates by the Federal Highway Administration based primarily on traffic counts and motor fuel tax records. Adjusting for the rebound effect of fuel economy on vehicle miles traveled, we estimate the fuel savings, CO2 emissions reductions and dollars saved on fuel due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years. Through the end of 2018, estimated cumulative fuel savings amount to approximately 2 trillion gallons of gasoline. We estimate that roughly one-fifth of the savings can be attributed to gasoline price increases over the period and four-fifths to fuel economy and greenhouse gas (ghg) standards.
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| 5 |
ID:
175233
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| Summary/Abstract |
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards are among the longest-running energy regulations in the United States, enduring several decades of changing political winds. First implemented in 1978, they have been adapted over time, responding to lessons learned and changing circumstances. In combination with the more recent vehicle greenhouse gas emission (GHG) standards, they have achieved enormous fuel savings and emission reductions. Until the 2018 proposed rollback, the quality of research and analysis in support of rulemakings improved dramatically with advances in analytical methods, computing power and the resources dedicated to the task. Despite the abundance of fuel economy and related data, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the standards from 1975 to the present. This paper analyzes historical data to assess the real-world impact of the standards, as well as draw lessons about energy and environmental policy design. Cumulatively, fuel economy improvements due to the standards have reduced fuel consumption by well over one and a half trillion gallons, saved consumers trillions of dollars and avoided 14 billion tons of GHG emissions. Our analysis indicates that fuel savings have exceeded the cost of improving fuel economy, traffic safety has improved and the impact on vehicle travel has been small.
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