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ID:
094891
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study discusses the potential for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy use by the Brazilian industrial sector in a low-carbon scenario over a horizon until 2030. It evaluates the main mitigation measures, the quantities of this gas avoided and the respective abatement costs. In relation to a benchmark scenario projected for 2030, the reduction of CO2 emissions estimated here can reach 43%, by adopting energy-efficiency measures, materials recycling and cogeneration, shifting from fossil fuels to renewables or less polluting energy sources and eliminating the use of biomass from deforestation. The set of measures studied here would bring emissions reductions of nearly 1.5 billion tCO2 over a period of 20 years (2010-2030). This would require huge investments, but the majority of them would have significant economic return and negative abatement costs. However, in many cases there would be low economic attractiveness and higher abatement costs, thus requiring more effective incentives. Brazil is already carrying out various actions toward the mitigation measures proposed here, but there are still substantial barriers to realize this potential. Therefore, a collective effort from both the public and private sectors is needed for the country to achieve this low-carbon scenario.
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| 2 |
ID:
126816
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the volumes of oil that can and cannot be used up to 2035 during the transition to a low-carbon global energy system using the global energy systems model, TIAM-UCL and the 'Bottom up Economic and Geological Oil field production model' (BUEGO). Globally in a scenario allowing the widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) nearly 500 billion barrels of existing 2P oil reserves must remain unused by 2035. In a scenario where CCS is unavailable this increases to around 600 billion barrels. Besides reserves, arctic oil and light tight oil play only minor roles in a scenario with CCS and essentially no role when CCS is not available. On a global scale, 40% of those resources yet to be found in deepwater regions must remain undeveloped, rising to 55% if CCS cannot be deployed. The widespread development of unconventional oil resources is also shown to be incompatible with a decarbonised energy system even with a total and rapid decarbonisation of energetic inputs. The work thus demonstrates the extent to which current energy policies encouraging the unabated exploration for, and exploitation of, all oil resources are incommensurate with the achievement of a low-carbon energy system.
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