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ID: 165456

Introducing a new dataset on leadership change in rebel groups, 1946–2010 / Lutmar, Carmela; Terris, Lesley G

Terris, Lesley G	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

Leaders and leadership changes are found to influence states’ foreign policy decisions, in particular with respect to war and peace between states. Although this issue is also addressed in the qualitative literature on intrastate wars, the influence of leadership turnovers in civil war has received limited systematic attention. One reason for this is the scarcity of quantitative data on rebel group leaderships. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive dataset on leadership changes in rebel groups, 1946–2010, organized by rebel-month. The effects of leadership changes among parties engaged in civil war are argued to be more complex than those found in interstate disputes. In this article we present our theoretical argument followed by presentation of the variables in the dataset and descriptive statistics. To demonstrate the potential research value of the dataset we examine the impact of leader shifts on civil war settlement in Africa. We conclude with avenues for future research which might benefit from this dataset.

Key Words

Civil Wars ; Leadership Change ; Rebel Goals ; Civil War Settlement ; Leader Change Triggers

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ID: 095383

Tale of two types: rebel goals and the onset of civil wars / Sobek, David; Payne, Caroline L

Sobek, David	Journal Article
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2010.

Summary/Abstract

Previous research has implicitly assumed that civil wars represent a coherent category of events, but given the variety of rebel goals that supposition seems tenuous. We split civil wars into those where the rebels simply want to remove the government (replacement) from those where the rebels want to alter the relationship between the state and society (legitimacy). Theoretically, states are most at risk for a civil war of replacement when they extract substantial wealth from society and the government is weak. In contrast, civil wars of legitimacy are more likely to occur in states where the rebels have both grievances and a means to maintain their future viability. An empirical analysis of civil wars of replacement and legitimacy from 1960 to 1999 confirms both our argument about the different types of civil violence and their differing causes.

Key Words

Civil Violence ; Rebel Goals ; Civil War Legitimacy ; Civil War

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