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| 1 |
ID:
125832
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines economic analyses of the "Options for Energy and the Environment" proposed by the Japanese government. The main focuses of the analyses are the power generation mix in 2030, and particularly electricity supply shares of nuclear power. The options proposed by the government assume drastic energy efficiency improvements, increase in renewable energy, and deep CO2 emission reductions. Considerable energy savings are assumed by the government even in the baseline scenario, and these are inconsistent with historical growth trends for GDP and power demand. We modify the energy savings baseline scenario for consistency with the historical trends and historical electricity savings after the nuclear power accident. In order to provide a wider array of options, particularly those with fewer negative impacts on GDP, this paper proposes alternative options under a revised baseline. In the alternative options, we assume lower shares of renewable energy in electricity supply and lower carbon price. The economic impacts for the alternative options are much smaller than those assumed by the government. The economic analyses provided in this paper will help future policy making for energy and environment in Japan.
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| 2 |
ID:
096649
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this study, emission reduction potentials in greenhouse gases (GHG) are assessed by country, sector, and cost using a GHG emission reduction assessment model with high resolutions with respect to region and technology and high consistency in terms of assumptions, interrelationships, and solution principles. Model analyses show that large potential reductions can be achieved at low cost in developing countries and power sectors. In addition, cost-efficient emission reductions were evaluated for some international emission reduction targets that have been derived on the basis of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities among developed and developing countries. If (1) emission reduction measures at negative costs and below 50 $/tCO2 for developed countries, (2) intensity improvement measures for selected sectors at negative costs and below 20 $/tCO2 for major developing countries, and (3) all emission reduction measures with negative costs for other developing countries in 2020 are adopted, then emission reductions of 8.9, 14.8, and 27.7 GtCO2 eq./yr compared to the technology-frozen case can be expected in developed countries, major developing countries, and globally, corresponding to a 11% decrease, 40% increase, and 17% increase from 2005 levels, respectively. Large-scale emission reductions can be achieved even if CO2-intensity targets for major sectors are assumed for major developing countries.
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| 3 |
ID:
097483
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this study, emission reduction potentials in greenhouse gases (GHG) are assessed by country, sector, and cost using a GHG emission reduction assessment model with high resolutions with respect to region and technology and high consistency in terms of assumptions, interrelationships, and solution principles. Model analyses show that large potential reductions can be achieved at low cost in developing countries and power sectors. In addition, cost-efficient emission reductions were evaluated for some international emission reduction targets that have been derived on the basis of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities among developed and developing countries. If (1) emission reduction measures at negative costs and below 50 $/tCO2 for developed countries, (2) intensity improvement measures for selected sectors at negative costs and below 20 $/tCO2 for major developing countries, and (3) all emission reduction measures with negative costs for other developing countries in 2020 are adopted, then emission reductions of 8.9, 14.8, and 27.7 GtCO2 eq./yr compared to the technology-frozen case can be expected in developed countries, major developing countries, and globally, corresponding to a 11% decrease, 40% increase, and 17% increase from 2005 levels, respectively. Large-scale emission reductions can be achieved even if CO2-intensity targets for major sectors are assumed for major developing countries.
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| 4 |
ID:
116999
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study estimates global time-series consumption-based GHG emissions by region from 1990 to 2005, including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Estimations are conducted for the whole economy and for two specific sectors: manufacturing and agriculture. Especially in the agricultural sector, it is important to include non-CO2 GHG emissions because these are the major emissions present. In most of the regions examined, the improvements in GHG intensities achieved in the manufacturing sector are larger than those in the agricultural sector. Compared with developing regions, most developed regions have consistently larger per-capita consumption-based GHG emissions over the whole economy, as well as higher production-based emissions. In the manufacturing sector, differences calculated by subtracting production-based emissions from consumption-based GHG emissions are determined by the regional economic level while, in the agricultural sector, they are dependent on regional production structures that are determined by international trade competitiveness. In the manufacturing sector, these differences are consistently and increasingly positive for the U.S., EU15 and Japan but negative for developing regions. In the agricultural sector, the differences calculated for the major agricultural importers like Japan and the EU15 are consistently positive while those of exporters like the U.S., Australia and New Zealand are consistently negative.
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