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| 1 |
ID:
104946
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Change in home heating to more efficient and renewable systems is important for a sound climate policy. The present paper aims to identify potential interventions for the uptake of wood-pellet heating in Norway using an agent-based model (ABM). The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation demonstrates that financial support, i.e., a stable wood-pellet price, and technical development, i.e., functional reliability improvement, have to be established all at the same time for a successful wood-pellet market to start. Furthermore, a soft intervention through persuading households to use environmentally beneficial heating system is not a promising driver for wood-pellet diffusion. Limitations and suggestions for future work are also discussed.
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| 2 |
ID:
111448
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2012.
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Recent developments such as tighter national carbon budgets, changing economical competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. This study explores a range of plausible development trajectories for the system in terms of carbon emissions, fuel mix and prices with the currently employed policies and market setup. An agent-based simulation model is used in order to explore the dynamics of the system under eight different scenarios. The simulation experiments indicate the continuation of fossil fuel dominance as the energy source, and a shift from natural gas to coal seems likely in the base case. Even with CCS investments, such a development is demonstrated to cause a significant increase in carbon emissions beyond 2030, following two decades of almost-constant emission levels. In general, experiments indicate a very strong internal inertia in the system that is hard to overcome just by policies focusing on a single aspect of the system (e.g. demand, supply, or technology). It is also observed that significant reductions in carbon emissions can be attained as a joint outcome of increased green electricity demand, especially among large-scale end-users, and high carbon costs.
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| 3 |
ID:
096737
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.
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