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| 1 |
ID:
110419
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper I investigate how often and how much outbreaks of intrastate conflict in oil producing states translates into oil supply shortfalls. The Libyan conflict that broke out in February 2011 highlighted the fear that intrastate conflict in oil producing states may imply shortfalls and ensuing volatile global oil prices. I argue, however, that it is far from certain that shortfalls following conflict outbreak will occur, since both sides in a conflict face incentives simultaneously to protect and maintain oil installations and to strike and destroy these. Based on a quantitative analysis of 39 intrastate wars in oil producing countries (1965-2007) I conclude that outbreak of conflict does not translate into production decline with any certainty. In fact, likelihoods are less than 50% for reductions to occur. In many cases growing production actually followed conflict outbreak. I conclude by investigating four characteristics of intrastate conflict that may explain when oil production is at risk during conflict: (1) proximity of oil producing fields to key battle zones, (2) duration of conflict, (3) separatism and the location of oil in separatist territory, and (4) the relative size of oil production. While the first three factors did not prove important, oil producer size could be significant. But further research is needed to establish this with greater certainty.
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| 2 |
ID:
109697
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Accelerating oil import dependence in energy consuming nations highlights the importance of having energy supplies at sufficient levels and at stable and reasonable prices. Consequently, it is crucial that oil exporters realize their full production potential. Current debates on energy security are often focused on short-term risks e.g. sudden disruptions due to wars, domestic instability, etc. However, when it comes to assessing oil supplier reliability it is equally important to assess their longer term ability and willingness to deliver oil to the global market. This study analyzes the effects of petroleum investment policies on crude oil production trends in 14 major oil producing countries (2000-2010) by focusing on the political-institutional frameworks that shape the investment conditions for the upstream oil sector. Our findings indicate that countries with less favorable oil sector frameworks systematically performed worse than countries with investor friendly and privatized sectors. The findings indicate that assessments based on remaining reserves and planned production capacities alone could inflate expectations about future oil supplies in a world where remaining crude reserves are located in countries with unfavorable investment frameworks.
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| 3 |
ID:
097341
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Sudden, short-term disruptions seriously endangering energy security can be triggered by a variety of events-among them attacks by terrorists. This study investigates terrorist attack practices against energy infrastructures and discusses how we may understand them. Our results indicate that attacks against energy infrastructures are comparatively few. Also, we find no strong connection between the ideologies of various terrorist groups and their proclivity to attack. In addition, the highly disproportionate number of attacks in a handful of countries highlights the strong geographic concentration of attacks. To explain these findings, we analyze terrorist targeting incentives including intimidation levels, symbolism, attack feasibility, and concerns for stakeholders. We argue that terrorists in general have comparatively few incentives to attack energy supply infrastructures based on our assessment of these factors. Moreover, higher levels of terrorist incidents in states more prone to internal violent conflict may suggest stronger incentives to attack energy infrastructures. When outlining energy security policies, the low frequency of worldwide attacks coupled with the high concentration of attacks in certain unstable countries should be taken into consideration. Energy importing countries could benefit from developing strategies to increase stability in key energy supply and/or transit countries facing risks of internal instability.
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