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| 1 |
ID:
193760
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| Summary/Abstract |
Lending by big technology companies (BigTechs) is an important new financial innovation in the digital era. This paper attempts to evaluate robustness and special features of BigTech's credit risk assessment. Using 1.8 million loan transactions for online merchants of a leading Chinese virtue bank, we carry out a horse race analysis between the BigTech approach (i.e., big data and machine learning models) and the bank approach (i.e., traditional financial data and scorecard models) in predicting loan defaults. We show that the BigTech approach better predicts loan defaults, reflecting information and modeling advantages. Though bank approach do well for the firms which have records in credit registry, BigTech's proprietary information can complement or, where necessary, substitute for credit history in predicting defaults, especially for the unbanked borrowers. We further discuss inclusiveness feature of the BigTech approach and the implications for financial inclusion, financial intermediaries' businesses and regulators' policy.
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| 2 |
ID:
106008
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Chinese outward direct investment (ODI) appears to differ from that of advanced economies. Is there a unique China model? By reviewing industry distributions of ODI data for 2003-2009, we found that Chinese ODI was not concentrated in industries that performed well either in exporting or domestically. Statistical analyses also confirmed that traditional variables, such as market size, production cost and legal environment, did not impact Chinese investors' choice of location for ODI. Instead, investors selected places where they could either learn advanced technologies or secure stable commodity supplies. We have tentatively concluded that the main purpose of the China model of ODI has not been to expand production overseas but to strengthen industries at home.
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| 3 |
ID:
144856
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.
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| 4 |
ID:
097822
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper attempts to explain the fundamental cause of China's growing imbalance problems. Economic data confirm that the key structural imbalance problems, such as overinvestment, large current account surpluses, low consumption share of GDP and income inequality, have all deteriorated over the past few years, despite continuous policy efforts to correct these problems. We argue that the key determining factor is repressed factor cost, which is associated with heavily distorted markets for labor, capital, land, resources and the environment. These are like implicit subsidies for producers, investors and exporters. They boost growth and, at the same time, lift investment and exports. Previous policy efforts have focused more on administrative measures, which have not been sustainable. Therefore, a more fundamental solution to the imbalance problem lies in completing market-oriented reforms for production factors and allowing free markets to determine prices of labor, capital, land and resources.
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| 5 |
ID:
171883
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| Summary/Abstract |
The advance of cryptocurrencies has sparked wide concern over their interplay with the existing global financial market. This paper analyzes the risk spillover relation between cryptocurrencies and major nancial assets, and unravels how cryptocurrencies could influence global financial systemic risk. We find that cryptocurrencies function as a separate risk source from traditional assets. Major legislative, financial and technological events in the cryptocurrency market may affect risk spillover dynamics. Although the overall penetration of cryptocurrencies is not yet deep, introducing cryptocurrency can signicantly increase the systemic risk to traditional markets during low risk level episodes
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| 6 |
ID:
121740
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Economists have put forward various proposals to deal with the growing risks of the global reserve currency system. In this paper we recommend that Asian economies hold each other's currencies as part of their foreign reserves. Different from crisis-fighting currency swap arrangements or crisis-rescuing fund mechanisms, this mechanism means that reserves would be held, with a regular arrangement in place and on an ongoing basis. We propose that the global reserve system should be pushed in the direction of diversification, which could be a transitional step toward a new single reserve system. This mechanism would not necessitate any currency being a globally accepted reserve currency but would mean that every currency carried some weight in the reserve system. Establishment of such a system would require significant development of regional bond markets and facilitation of macroeconomic surveillance among the economies.
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| 7 |
ID:
147632
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| Summary/Abstract |
The Belt & Road Initiative is China's greatest international economic ambition, aiming at stimulating economic development in a vast region covering sub regions in Asia, Europe and Africa, which accounts for 64% of world population and 30% of world GDP. The Initiative is devised to reconfigure China's external sector in order to continue its strong growth. While infrastructure development plays a central role, the Belt & Road Initiative is a comprehensive one, including also policy dialogue, unimpeded trade, financial support and people-to-people exchange. It is too early to assess the impact of this ambitious Initiative. It certainly has the potential of turning the underdeveloped “Belt & Road” region into a new vibrant economic pillar and contributing to economic policy thinking by incorporating successful experiences of emerging market economies. However, the Initiative also faces very high barriers, including lack of central coordination mechanism, potential clash of different political regimes and beliefs and financial viability of cross-border projects.
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