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| 1 |
ID:
183445
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| Summary/Abstract |
Since the 1990s, many publications in the world have predicted the "imminent collapse of the North Korean regime" or a change of power in the country. However, so far this has not happened, and the DPRK continues to exist in its former form. What leads to such chronically unrealizable predictions about North Korea, and what are the alternatives for the future of this country in the short and medium term?
Based on a number of recent unfulfilled predictions, the authors try to explain the reason for these failures, closely related to ideological framework, lack of information, and dependence on certain sources, which leads to underestimation of the DPRK's capabilities and misinterpretation of data, when any event is seen as a sign of the regime's imminent collapse. Based on the theoretical approaches of Gordon Tullock and Vladimir Lenin, the article identifies the main types of modern threats to the current political regime (external invasion, coup within the elite, economic collapse, mass protests), as well as the probability of their implementation under the current policy of the DPRK leadership.
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| 2 |
ID:
098125
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
As a result of the policy followed regarding North Korea by presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, two inter-Korean summits were held and a substantial breakthrough made in inter-Korean economic cooperation. The steps to expand this cooperation adopted at the second inter-Korean summit could bring North and South appreciably closer and be of great material benefit to them. Lee Myung-bak's accession to power, however, and his harsher approach to North Korea have nullified a not inconsiderable portion of the efforts of his two predecessors. The inter-Korean dialogue has been terminated, the implementation of new economic plans has been frozen, and already existing projects have begun to show losses. At the same time, despite the tension in official inter-Korean relations, South Korean business continues to develop its own activities in North Korea. In August 2009, North Korea's tactic of escalating economic demands to the point where they could not be met was replaced by expectations of proposals from the South.
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| 3 |
ID:
124206
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The author offers an overview of whatever statistics is available about North Korea's economic ties with the rest of the world in the 2000s when its foreign trade expanded significantly. She examines the principal trends in commercial relations, cooperation in business investment, and projects North Korea is carrying out with its principal partners, China and the Republic of Korea, in the first place, and with Russia, too. In conclusion the author provides an outlook for North Korea's economic cooperation with other countries under the new leader.
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