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| 1 |
ID:
111349
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Over the next decade, large energy investments are required in the UK to meet growing energy service demands and legally binding emission targets under a pioneering policy agenda. These are necessary despite deep mid-term (2025-2030) uncertainties over which national policy makers have little control. We investigate the effect of two critical mid-term uncertainties on optimal near-term investment decisions using a two-stage stochastic energy system model.
The results show that where future fossil fuel prices are uncertain: (i) the near term hedging strategy to 2030 differs from any one deterministic fuel price scenario and is structurally dissimilar to a simple 'average' of the deterministic scenarios, and (ii) multiple recourse strategies from 2030 are perturbed by path dependencies caused by hedging investments. Evaluating the uncertainty under a decarbonisation agenda shows that fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive at around £20 billion. The addition of novel mitigation options reduces the value of fossil fuel price uncertainty to £11 billion. Uncertain biomass import availability shows a much lower value of uncertainty at £300 million.
This paper reveals the complex relationship between the flexibility of the energy system and mitigating the costs of uncertainty due to the path-dependencies caused by the long-life times of both infrastructures and generation technologies.
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| 2 |
ID:
176722
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| Summary/Abstract |
The UK has some of the worst performing residential buildings in the EU from an energy efficiency perspective. Natural gas remains a dominant feature of existing and new-build housing with strong historical, technical, and social barriers to change. Consequently, the residential sector is responsible for significant shares of national emissions and has a strong role to play under ambitious net zero targets.
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| 3 |
ID:
098702
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2010.
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Stabilising the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere at a level of 450 ppm in order to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C requires an ambitious climate policy. This study analyses the role of different technologies in the EU-27 with regard to efficiency improvements, fuel switching and energy saving measures under such a climate policy target. The analysis is carried out using the regionalised Pan-European TIMES energy system model, a technology oriented, linear optimisation model. Thereby limited resources and import potentials of various energy carriers, competition among different sectors and the country-specific differences in energy demand are taken into account. As a result, it turns out that the structure of energy use inside the EU-27 is much stronger, influenced by political targets and positions regarding climate protection, energy security and the use of nuclear energy than by available technologies. In the case of climate protection polices and limited use of nuclear energy, the most important measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases are an increased use of renewables, carbon capture and storage, fuel switching and the intensified application of electricity in the end use sectors. Efficiency improvements play an additional role when security of supply is taken into account.
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| 4 |
ID:
150392
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| Summary/Abstract |
South Africa and specifically its economically dominant province of Gauteng aim to reduce their influence on climate change. Especially the transport sector is seen as one of the key drivers of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper describes the methodology used to combine the application of two models in order to provide a basis for informed policy recommendation for GHG mitigation.
The TEMT model provides real world emission factors adapted to local conditions in Gauteng for numerous vehicle technology concepts. Those data feed into the TIMES-GEECO energy system model which identifies future technology use for different alternative scenarios. Finally, the scenario results are illustrated spatially using a GIS programme.
The results of the scenario analysis show that under implemented policies GHG emissions in Gauteng are likely to increase substantially. Pollutant emissions are currently high as a result of a comparably old vehicle fleet. The spatial display of these results shows where the traffic network is concentrated and the location of so-called emission hot-spots. Energy efficient policies for the transport sector of Gauteng can achieve a significant reduction of emissions and energy consumption. Alternative powertrains and the use of locally produced biofuels can play a significant role in such policies.
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| 5 |
ID:
169736
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| Summary/Abstract |
We extend and use the PRIMES energy model to explore pathways towards climate-neutrality in the EU by 2050 and 2070 and analyse implications on energy demand, supply and costs. We draw on the modelling, data and scenario framework developed by the authors to support the European Commission's “Clean Planet for All” communication, released in November 2018. Based on model results for numerous scenarios and sensitivity runs, we analyse key issues to explore feasibility, uncertainties, costs and priorities for climate-neutrality strategy. We suggest that a sustainable climate-neutral energy system in the EU is feasible using known technologies. We emphasise that the EU's climate and energy package for 2030 currently in legislation is not sufficient to ensure climate neutrality by 2050. We characterise as of “no-regret” options promoting energy efficiency, renewables and electrification where cost-effective. However, carbon neutrality also necessitates alternative options of “disruptive” nature. Technologies supporting the disruptive options are not yet mature in industry. High uncertainty surrounds their learning potential. Their deployment heavily depends on policies facilitating investment. The system analysis based on the model illustrates the importance of sectoral integration. We argue that hydrogen, and to a certain extent synthetic carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, are critical elements among the disruptive options.
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| 6 |
ID:
119785
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A substantial untapped energy saving potential rests in the building sector and is expected to play an important role in achieving reduction of environmental impacts of energy. In order to utilise this potential, effective policy measures need to be adopted to remove the existing barriers and create incentives. For that purpose, the cost effective energy saving options together with an optimal level of savings and expected environmental benefits have to be identified. The paper reports on a study that analyses these questions by including heat-saving measures in buildings into an energy system optimisation model of the Danish heat and power sector. The achieved optimal level of heat savings reaches 11% of projected heat demand in 2025 under the model assumptions. Moreover, the analysis reveals the importance of considering energy conservation options in a system wide perspective. Furthermore, the results suggest that changes in the energy generation sector are the prime driver behind the reduction of environmental externalities of energy. Heat savings in buildings play only a small role under model assumptions.
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| 7 |
ID:
117225
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
With national targets to reduce carbon emissions enforced by international accords, the UK's energy sector will move towards its low carbon future through political, societal and technological drivers. Three Transition Pathway narratives have been developed to describe three different evolutions of the UK energy sector out to 2050. This paper details two tools that have been combined to assess the robustness and rationale of these three energy futures. The future energy scenario assessment (FESA) tool is used to develop pathway specific large-scale generation mixes that meet expected demands on both a yearly and hourly time step basis. The multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning (MOTRiP) tool is used to generate a set of electrical network plans for the assessment of expected electrical infrastructure requirements, following the application of the future generation mixes to the current GB electrical transmission network. The results, detailed throughout this paper, demonstrate that the combination of FESA's detailed temporal analysis and MOTRiP's comprehensive geographical analysis provides a high-quality holistic examination of the Transition Pathways scenarios, assessing the need for national infrastructure reinforcements with the changing demand and generation patterns.
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| 8 |
ID:
110415
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In order to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low.
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| 9 |
ID:
109323
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Large scale storage offers the prospect of capturing and using excess electricity within a low carbon energy system, which otherwise might have to be wasted. Incorporating the role of storage into current scenario tools is challenging, because it requires high temporal resolution to reflect the effects of intermittent sources on system balancing. This study draws on results from a model with such resolution. It concludes that large scale storage could become economically viable for scenarios with high penetration of renewables. As the proportion of intermittent sources increases, the optimal type of storage shifts towards solutions with low energy related costs, even at the expense of efficiency. However, a range of uncertainties have been identified, concerning storage technology development, the regulatory environment, alternatives to storage and the stochastic uncertainty of year-on-year revenues. All of these negatively affect the cost of finance and the chances of successful market uptake. We argue, therefore, that, if the possible wider system and social benefits from the presence of storage are to be achieved, stronger and more strategic policy support may be necessary. More work on the social and system benefits of storage is needed to gauge the appropriate extent of support measures.
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| 10 |
ID:
116758
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The UK government has established ambitious policies to address climate change and promote renewable energy, and has set targets both for reducing carbon emissions and for deploying renewables. Scotland, a constituent nation of the UK, has also set its own targets for climate change mitigation and renewable electricity. This paper analyses the energy, economic and environmental implications of carbon and renewable electricity targets in Scotland and the UK using a newly developed two-region UK MARKAL energy system model, where Scotland (SCT) and rest of the UK (RUK) are the two regions. The paper shows that meeting Scotland's carbon targets does not require additional decarbonisation effort if the UK meets its own targets at least cost; and that Scotland's renewable energy ambitions do imply additional costs above the least cost path to the meeting the UK's obligations under the EU renewable energy directive. Meeting Scottish renewable electricity targets diverts investment and deployment in renewables from rest of the UK to Scotland. In addition to increased energy system cost, Scottish renewable electricity targets may also require early investment in new electricity transmission capacity between Scotland and rest of the UK.
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| 11 |
ID:
122723
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves are widely used for the assessment of costs related to CO2 emissions reduction in environmental economics, as well as domestic and international climate policy. Several meta-analyses and model comparisons have previously been performed that aim to identify the causes for the wide range of MAC curves. Most of these concentrate on general equilibrium models with a focus on aspects such as specific model type and technology learning, while other important aspects remain almost unconsidered, including the availability of abatement technologies and level of discount rates. This paper addresses the influence of several key parameters on MAC curves for the United Kingdom and the year 2030. A technology-rich energy system model, UK MARKAL, is used to derive the MAC curves. The results of this study show that MAC curves are robust even to extreme fossil fuel price changes, while uncertainty around the choice of the discount rate, the availability of key abatement technologies and the demand level were singled out as the most important influencing factors. By using a different model type and studying a wider range of influencing factors, this paper contributes to the debate on the sensitivity of MAC curves.
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