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| 1 |
ID:
099284
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) 'business as usual' (BAU); (ii) 'advanced fuel economy' (AFE); and (iii) 'alternative energy replacement' (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.
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| 2 |
ID:
111325
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Power sector is the largest CO2 emitter in China. To mitigate CO2 emissions for the power sector is a tough task, which requires implementation of targeted carbon mitigation policies. There might be multiple forms for carbon mitigation policies and it is still unclear which one is the best for China. Applying a superstructure optimisation model for optimal planning of China's power sector built by the authors previously, which was based on real-life plants composition data of China's power sector in 2009, and could incorporate all possible actions of the power sector, including plants construction, decommission, and application of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) on coal-fuelled plants, the implementation effects of three carbon mitigation policies were studied quantitatively, achieving a conclusion that the so-called "Surplus-Punishment & Deficit-Award" carbon tax policy is the best from the viewpoint of increasing CO2 reduction effect and also reducing the accumulated total cost. Based on this conclusion, the corresponding relationships between CO2 reduction objectives (including the accumulated total emissions reduction by the objective year and the annual emissions reduction in the objective year) were presented in detail. This work provides both directional and quantitative suggestions for China to make carbon mitigation policies in the future.
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