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| 1 |
ID:
150028
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper I use quarterly and monthly data from 1994 to 2014 to test if OPEC acts as a cartel, and therefore, it affects oil prices through members' coordination. I use Engle and Granger two-step approach, Johansen cointegration test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration to examine the long-run relation between OPEC production and each member's production as an evidence of coordination. Besides, I apply Granger causality and Toda and Yamamoto tests to check the direction of causality between the OPEC production and oil prices (U.K. Brent and Dubai Fateh). The findings show no evidence of cointegration between the production of the members and that of OPEC, indicating no cartel behavior exists. Moreover, the results show that OPEC production does not cause oil prices; rather it is the other way around.
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| 2 |
ID:
151196
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades using time-series analysis on annual data from 1981 to 2013. We focus on two analytical distinctions to the inter-temporal budget constraint (IBC) hypothesis in relation to previous studies. First, we extend the standard bivariate approach to a multivariate framework that accounts for the roles of oil price variations and financial deepening, which have important implications for resource allocation. Second is the use of the Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD)-based causality test that is also carried out to arbitrage between the results with and without a structural break. It employs both the conventional unit root test (augmented Dickey–Fuller [ADF] and Phillips–Perron [PP]) and the unit root test with a structural break (Perron, 2006; Zivot & Andrews, 1992). It also carries out the conventional residual-based cointegration test (Engle & Granger, 1987) and the residual-based cointegration test with a structural break (Gregory & Hansen, 1995). Findings suggest that there is current account sustainability in Nigeria and structural changes were not very potent during the period under consideration. This implies that the Nigerian economy complied with the IBC hypothesis, suggesting that exports could actually finance imports.
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| 3 |
ID:
132659
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We apply a recently developed unit root test that simultaneously accounts for heteroskedasticity and structural breaks to United States monthly natural gas consumption. We find that United States monthly natural gas consumption is stationary. Our results illustrate the importance of accounting for heteroskedasticity when testing for a unit root in energy consumption with higher frequency data.
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| 4 |
ID:
101088
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines spatial integration of food grain markets in India. Using the maximum likelihood method of cointegration, it investigates whether regional food grain markets within and across states are spatially linked or not. The cointegration tests provide evidence in favour of spatial integration of the regional food grain markets. Even though regional markets are geographically dispersed, prices across different market centres within and across states have exhibited long-run spatial linkages, suggesting that all the exchange locations are integrated and that prices provide relevant market signals. There are, however, regional variations in the extent of market integration, which could be due to regional disparities in infrastructure and the institutional structure of food grain markets. The results have important implications for agricultural price policy and the food market liberalisation programme.
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| 5 |
ID:
099779
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates a contemporary issue of Macau concerning the impact of casinos on other sectors' employment. The long-run and short-run effects are investigated using data-oriented econometric models. In the long-run, the casino boom leads to an employment expansion in other sectors. However, the effect is insignificant in the short-run. Simulations from a theoretical model disclose the pure crowding-out effect of the increased casino employment on other sectors with other things the same as the situation of 2003. During the period 2004-2008, the crowding-out effect is more serious on the non-casino service sector than on the industrial sector. Results from both types of models shed light on policy options
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| 6 |
ID:
133042
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| Publication |
2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines whether initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption are likely to be effective by applying univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests to hydroelectricity consumption in 55 countries over the period 1965-2011. We find that for the panel, as well as about four-fifths of individual countries, that hydroelectricity consumption is stationary. This result implies that shocks to hydroelectricity consumption in most countries will only result in temporary deviations from the long-run growth path. An important consequence of this finding is that initiatives designed to have permanent positive effects on hydroelectricity consumption, such as large-scale dam construction, are unlikely to be effective in increasing the share of hydroelectricity, relative to consumption of fossil fuels.
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