| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article investigates the effects of the Iraq war on terrorism in the West. Arguments from academics and from war-opponents and adherents are distilled into three hypotheses which are tested. To do this, a measure is created of terrorist activities in the West based on terrorist attacks and failed and foiled plots. The causal logic of the hypotheses is examined by piecing together data from various sources. Effects of the Iraq war are surprisingly hard to identify on terrorism in the West: It is difficult to corroborate that the Iraq war has drawn Islamist militant resources from the West, that Jihadist returnees should pose a significant threat, or that Muslims in greater numbers have been mobilized to terrorism. This does not disqualify transnational dynamics! Rather, it exemplifies how transnational dynamics in terrorism connects some parts of the globe, but not all, and not necessarily those most globalized. Immaterial factors, such as tactics from Iraq, have not been relevant in the West, but have had an effect in Afghanistan. Material factors like the return of Jihadists have not permeated to the West, but have had an effect in neighbouring countries.
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