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| 1 |
ID:
108977
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| 2 |
ID:
126348
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Defenders of the Electoral College frequently assert that victory in the Electoral College requires a winning candidate to "produce a coalition of states with wide and diverse interests" thereby producing "a broadly based electoral victory." These defenders never stop to consider the fact that in a close election the difference between the winning and losing coalition of states may depend on highly contingent factors. In a 2003 article in this journal Neubauer and Zeitlin demonstrated that George W. Bush's Electoral College victory in 2000 depended on the size of the House of Representatives. In this article I demonstrate that the outcome of the 2012 election could have depended on the 2012 Electoral College being based on the newly apportioned incoming House rather than the previously apportioned outgoing House. This is a statutory specification rather than a constitutional requirement. It could be changed by simple legislation. We have Elbridge Gerry's suspicions to thank for this statutory contingency!
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| 3 |
ID:
100776
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
As Election Day approaches, many political commentators are asking whether the 2010 midterm elections could be a reprise of 1994, when Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate and 52 seats in the House of Representatives to take control of both chambers for the first time in 40 years. There is almost universal agreement that Republicans are poised to make major gains in both the House and the Senate. And while the GOP's chances of gaining the 10 seats needed to take control of the upper chamber appear remote, results from the generic ballot forecasting model indicate that the 39 seats required to take back the House of Representatives are well within reach.
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| 4 |
ID:
160647
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article analyzes extraordinary elections to Japan's House of Representatives held on October 22, 2017. The author notes that the voters showed little interest in the elections, but the sense of a foreign threat associated with the actions of North Korea, along with the lack of a real alternative to the Liberal Democratic party, and the chaos in the ranks of the opposition, allowed the parties of the rightist coalition to win a resounding victory and keep their qualified majority in the lower house of parliament.
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| 5 |
ID:
117573
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Congressman Alan West (R-FL) passed the incivility duck test when he described his fellow Floridian Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) as "the most vile, unprofessional and despicable member of the House of Representatives." That read like incivility, sounded like incivility, and was universally interpreted to be uncivil, thus it probably was.
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| 6 |
ID:
165549
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| Summary/Abstract |
Members of the public are often left choosing between two extreme candidates who will not represent the moderate, aggregate, public effectively. Cross-pressured members of the U.S. Congress serve a constituency that votes for the opposite party at the national level. If there is any group of representatives that have an incentive to moderate their voting behavior, it is cross-pressured members. In this article, I show that cross-pressured members are more moderate than the average member of their party. This could provide constraints on rampant partisanship in the form of districts that are comfortable electing a representative of one party and voting for the president of the other. However, I show that these members are significantly less likely to be reelected. Thus a paradox exists in which cross-pressured members who moderate their voting behavior are no more likely to be rewarded for behaving the way citizens claim they want to represent.
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| 7 |
ID:
100779
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| Publication |
2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Historically, statistical models for forecasting the outcome of midterm elections to the United States House of Representatives have not been particularly successful (Jones and Cuzán 2006). However, in what may have been a breakthrough, most models correctly predicted that the Democrats would re-emerge as the majority party in 2006 (Cuzán 2007). One successful model was estimated using 46 elections, beginning with 1914 (only the second time that 435 representatives, the present number, were elected). The model was relatively simple, making use of national-level variables only (Cuzán and Bundrick 2006). Using a similar model, I generated a forecast for the 2010 midterm election.
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