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ID: 100946

Impact of trade on international mediation / Bohmelt, Tabias

Bohmelt, Tabias	Journal Article
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2010.

Summary/Abstract

If trade affects the costs of conflict, does it also influence the likelihood of mediation attempts? This article argues that dense bilateral trade between antagonists yields high opportunity costs since it is expensive to seek alternative markets and the belligerents will be highly vulnerable to sanctions from their counterpart. This creates incentives for combatants to limit hostility and settle conflicts through mediation. By contrast, the extent to which belligerents trade with other states decreases the likelihood of mediation since antagonists with alternative partners can mitigate the consequences of sanctions and substitute for markets, which may be at risk or even lost because of the outbreak of a dispute. The divergent effects of different trade ties imply that the impact of bilateral trade on the prospects for mediation should vary conditional on countries' trade with states outside the dyad and vice versa. This article demonstrates that this is partially valid.

Key Words

Sanctions ; Trade ; Substitution ; Internatioal Mediation ; Opportunity Costs ; Trade Conflict

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ID: 143337

Understanding the economics–politics nexus in South Korea–China relations / Ye, Min

Ye, Min	Article
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Summary/Abstract

A very interesting observation in recent South Korea–China relations is the sharp contrast between their “hot” economic and “cold” political ties. This article proposes to understand the “trade–conflict” relations from the perspective of the two states’ grand strategy of foreign policy. At the bilateral level, Vector Autoregression models are employed to test the Granger causality between Sino-South Korean bilateral trade and political relations. At the regional level, the two states’ economic and political ties with other regional powers in Northeast Asia are examined. The findings reveal different patterns in South Korea and China’s grand strategies to balance their economic and political goals.

Key Words

Trade Conflict ; Foreign Policy ; South Korea–China Relations ; Trade–Conflict Debate

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