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| 1 |
ID:
121264
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Policies formulated to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as a low-carbon fuel standard, frequently rely on life-cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate emissions, but LCA results are often highly uncertain. This study develops life-cycle models that quantitatively and qualitatively describe the uncertainty and variability in GHG emissions for both fossil fuels and ethanol and examines mechanisms to reduce those uncertainties in the policy process. Uncertainty regarding emissions from gasoline is non-negligible, with an estimated 90% confidence interval ranging from 84 to 100 g CO2e/MJ. Emissions from biofuels have greater uncertainty. The widths of the 90% confidence intervals for corn and switchgrass ethanol are estimated to be on the order of 100 g CO2e/MJ, and removing emissions from indirect land use change still leaves significant remaining uncertainty. Though an opt-in policy mechanism can reduce some uncertainty by incentivizing producers to self-report fuel production parameters, some important parameters, such as land use change emissions and nitrogen volatilization, cannot be accurately measured and self-reported. Low-carbon fuel policies should explicitly acknowledge, quantify, and incorporate uncertainty in life cycle emissions in order to more effectively achieve emissions reductions. Two complementary ways to incorporate this uncertainty in low carbon fuel policy design are presented.
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| 2 |
ID:
101371
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Cellulosic ethanol has been identified as a promising alternative to fossil fuels to provide energy for the transportation sector. One of the obstacles cellulosic ethanol must overcome in order to contribute to transportation energy demand is the infrastructure required to produce and distribute the fuel. Given a nascent cellulosic ethanol industry, locating cellulosic ethanol refineries and creating the accompanying infrastructure is essentially a greenfield problem that may benefit greatly from quantitative analysis. This study models cellulosic ethanol infrastructure investment using a mixed integer program (MIP) that locates ethanol refineries and connects these refineries to the biomass supplies and ethanol demands in a way that minimizes the total cost. For the single- and multi-state regions examined in this study, larger facilities can decrease ethanol costs by $0.20-0.30 per gallon, and placing these facilities in locations that minimize feedstock and product transportation costs can decrease ethanol costs by up to $0.25 per gallon compared to uninformed placement that could result from influences such as local subsidies to encourage economic development. To best benefit society, policies should allow for incentives that encourage these low-cost production scenarios and avoid politically motivated siting of plants.
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